Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-05-21 02:06Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry, particularly the European route, is experiencing fluctuations in freight rates due to trade tensions and geopolitical factors, with short-term demand expectations showing signs of improvement despite ongoing uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for European shipping opened lower and fell over 2% during the day, reaching a low of 2261.0 points, following a previous day where it rose over 6% and closed up 4.36% [1]. - The Shanghai export container freight index for European routes reported a decrease of 2.9%, standing at 1265.30 points as of May 19, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Freight Rates - Current spot freight rates for the latter half of May have dropped to a range of $1500-$1900 per FEU, with various shipping companies adjusting their rates, such as YML at around $1600 and MSC at $1890 [2]. - Predictions indicate that the "explosion" of demand on the US routes may continue until late July, potentially leading shipping companies to reallocate capacity from European routes, tightening supply and driving up European freight rates [1]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for European shipping is expected to improve due to a potential recovery in US line demand, which may alleviate pressure on European routes [3][5]. - The average weekly capacity for May, June, and July is projected at 27.46, 29.89, and 29.83 million TEU respectively, with attention needed on future shipping schedule adjustments [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Short-term trading sentiment remains bullish due to the lack of significant negative drivers, with expectations for freight rates to rise despite potential downward adjustments in the short term [3]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious and monitor geopolitical developments, capacity, and cargo volume data closely [4].