麦格理华润啤酒会议纪要：市场份额扩大，股东汇报改善

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beer is experiencing strong performance in the beer industry, with a focus on market share growth and shareholder returns, despite recent stock sales by the president being attributed to personal financial planning rather than company fundamentals [1][3]. Group 1: Beer Business Performance - The beer business is outperforming industry peers, with a recovery in sales growth in April after a slowdown in March, driven by Heineken's 20% growth and successful penetration into key live house channels [1]. - Super X beer has rebounded with a 10% sales growth after a decline due to rebranding last year, supported by a well-adjusted product mix that maintains low single-digit average price growth [1]. - The company aims for low single-digit growth in both sales and average price, with a projected gross margin increase of approximately 1% and double-digit profit growth through cost savings [1]. Group 2: Channel Dynamics - The sales channel is shifting towards non-immediate consumption, with immediate consumption accounting for 38% of total beer sales, where over 60% is high-end beer [1]. - Non-immediate consumption channels represent 62% of total sales, with high-end products still in early stages, contributing only 40%, but showing high single-digit growth, which will be a key driver for the group's premiumization strategy [1]. Group 3: Regional Performance and Strategy - Regionally, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are performing well, while Sichuan is affected by weak consumer demand [2]. - The white liquor business will adopt a defensive strategy by reducing sales scale and controlling operational expenses to achieve breakeven, indicating effective management of goodwill impairment risks [2]. Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024A to 2027E show a gradual increase from 38,635 million to 43,216 million, with revenue growth rates of (0.8%), 3.2%, 4.1%, and 4.1% respectively [5]. - EBIT is expected to grow from 6,960 million in 2024A to 9,930 million in 2027E, with growth rates of (10.0%), 16.9%, 11.8%, and 9.2% [5]. - Reported profit is projected to rise from 4,739 million in 2024A to 6,411 million in 2027E, with adjusted profit following a similar upward trend [5].