碳酸锂不宜过分看空

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that lithium carbonate futures are experiencing a downward trend, with a significant bearish sentiment in the market. As of May 20, the main contract for lithium carbonate has dropped to 60,860 yuan/ton [2] - The decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to increased cost optimization from industry chain integration and a continuous decrease in raw material prices, leading to weakened cost support for lithium carbonate [2] - Despite favorable macro policies, the lack of substantial demand support has prevented lithium carbonate prices from rebounding [2] Group 2 - Current downstream demand for lithium carbonate remains stable, with April demand recorded at 89,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2,625 tons and a year-on-year growth of 33.9%. May demand is expected to be 88,600 tons [3] - High inventory levels are exerting pressure on the market, with total inventory increasing to 131,900 tons as of May 15, including significant accumulation in upstream smelting plants [3] - The supply side remains relaxed, with upstream production recovering and overseas mineral arrivals increasing, maintaining significant supply pressure despite some production cuts in April and May [2][3] Group 3 - The market outlook for lithium carbonate remains weak, with supply-demand imbalances highlighted. Although supply pressure is expected to ease slightly in May, the downward trend in raw material costs is reducing support for prices [4] - The futures price is anticipated to test the 60,000 yuan/ton level, and if it breaks below this threshold, it may trigger accelerated declines in the market [4] - Overall, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures is expected to trade weakly within the range of 58,000 to 63,000 yuan/ton [4]