债市 短线震荡运行

Group 1: Market Overview - The short-term bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, and unilateral operations are not recommended. However, if the liquidity does not continue to tighten, it is suggested to buy TS contracts on dips as valuations are relatively reasonable [1][4] - As of May 20, different maturity bond contracts showed continued divergence, with long-end contracts performing stronger and short-end contracts weaker. TL and T contracts both increased by 0.03%, while TF and TS contracts decreased by 0.04% and 0.03% respectively [1] Group 2: Economic Resilience - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still better than market expectations. The service production index also showed resilience with a 6.0% year-on-year growth [2] - Fixed asset investment and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5% and 5.1% year-on-year respectively, indicating a strong demand side despite a slowdown in the real estate sector [2] - In April, new social financing reached 1.1591 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2249 trillion yuan year-on-year, primarily supported by government bond financing [2] Group 3: Financial Data Insights - By the end of April, M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, reflecting strong monetary support for the real economy, while M1 growth slowed to 1.5% year-on-year [2] - The decrease in household short-term and long-term loans by 401.9 billion yuan and 123.1 billion yuan respectively indicates a tightening in consumer credit and a slowdown in real estate sales [2] Group 4: Yield Curve Dynamics - The overall liquidity in May was more relaxed compared to April, with R001 and R007 rates dropping to 1.43% and 1.53%, respectively, creating a negative carry in the current bonds [4] - There is a divergence in market views regarding future liquidity, with concerns about potential tightening from the central bank amid high government bond issuance [4] - The ability of the yield curve to open up downward space will depend on whether liquidity continues to ease, which could lead to a decline in short-term yields [4]