Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Dekang Animal Husbandry (02419) and raises the target price by 57% to HKD 66, indicating a 15% upside potential from the current price, while maintaining an outperform rating for the industry [1] Group 1: Business Model - Dekang adopts a "company + farmer" model and has pioneered the second farm sow breeding model, implementing a strategy to densify in the southwestern region [2] - The company is projected to have a slaughter volume of 8.78 million in 2024 and 11 million in 2025, ranking fourth among listed pig companies and sixth in the industry [2] - The asset per head for Dekang is estimated at RMB 1,537, compared to RMB 2,317 for industry leaders, with the second farm's return on assets (ROA) at 17% in the first half of 2023 [2] Group 2: Cost Advantage - Dekang leads the industry in cost efficiency, with total costs projected to be below RMB 14.0 and RMB 12.5 per kilogram in 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, compared to the industry average of RMB 15.0-15.5 and RMB 13.0-13.5 [3] - The low cost is attributed to technological empowerment in breeding and feed nutrition, as well as strict health management and efficient digital management [3] - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 38% in 2024, the highest among listed pig companies [3] Group 3: Growth Potential - Dekang's slaughter volume CAGR from 2020 to 2024 is 59%, the highest among the top ten pig companies, with a forecast of reaching 11 million heads in 2025 [4] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, supported by a model that combines penetration potential and expansion capability, with a projected capacity of 30 million heads in the long term [4] Group 4: Valuation - Dekang's current valuation remains low, with an estimated market value of RMB 1,365 per head, indicating a potential increase of 39% compared to the industry average and 78% compared to Muyuan [5] - The company's fundamentals are improving liquidity, with an average turnover rate of 1% and an average daily trading volume of RMB 50 million as of May 19 [5]
中金：维持德康农牧(02419)跑赢行业评级 升目标价至66港元