当下正值农业新时代"拐点"，"三农"政策利国利民已然成为全国上下的发展共识。 对于这一发展共识，近期华源证券也发布了关于德康农牧(02419)顺应行业大势助农利农的系列研报——即《德康农牧：又见穿云箭》。在这些研报中，华 源证券以德康农牧(02419)分析样本，深刻阐述了德康在不与民争利的价值观驱动下，已由生产型企业转型为服务型企业，在国家和农民之间建立起一个可 持续的技术传播体系。 而于德康农牧来说，公司能够切身响应三农政策，成功向服务型企业转型，这并非是一蹴而就的事，而是德康农牧战略初心、转型能力及文化基因等多方面 因素作用使然。 一是，以价值观为引擎、企业初心为根本，快速实现从传统型企业向服务型企业的高质量转型。 据悉，德康农牧董事长王德根出生于重庆合川的一个农民家庭，草根出身的他立志改变农业现状。在这一价值观的驱动下，德康深刻认识到未来农牧的主要 增值空间在提升养殖效率和养殖产品品质，故此德康也以"打造高端食品生态圈"为战略初心，着眼于"普通养殖户做不到、一般企业做不好，而养殖户又真 正需要的环节"，实现了由传统型企业向服务型企业的转型。 而德康农牧所谓的向服务型企业转型，则主要是围绕模式创新、技术赋 ...

德康农牧（02419）的突出投资价值，正为市场上的专业机构所深入挖掘。日前，华源证券发布了首次 覆盖公司的深度研报《德康农牧：又见穿云箭》，该机构认为德康在盈利、技术等方面均已领跑行业， 基于德康农牧技术驱动、模式创新的科技平台型战略，华源证券给予德康"买入"评级。 通览华源证券的上述研报，"模式创新"是被高频提及的关键词之一。在定调上，华源证券甚至认为德康 农牧独创的"平台+生态"模式，"有望成为行业转型依附的对象"。 近年来，"反内卷"逐步凝聚成为全社会的新共识。不论是新兴产业，抑或是传统行业，如何在整治"内 卷"的同时，实现更高质量的发展，这已是关乎未来前景的核心议题。就拿猪业来说，养猪技术、农民 权益、环境保护、食品安全都属于各方关切的范畴，围绕这些议题，猪企如何跳脱出"唯利是图"、"规 模至上"的旧范式，投入更多精力于模式转型、技术创新，同时兼顾农民利益，不将1800万养猪农户在 市场竞争中挤出，显然是一个极具挑战的考验。 据华源证券分析师测算，如将农场主费后净利润剔除，先把农场主环节的成本加回，以计算整个链条的 纯粹的养殖效率的话，2024年德康现代农场的产业链头均利润为504元/头，同期，采用自 ...

如何能在资本过剩的环境里，让整个产业链能拿出余力为食品安全做保障？各方面的压力已迫在眉睫， 在此背景下，我国农业方面的政策重点已发生重大转变，未来将重点围绕两条主线展开："保障农民权 益与激活企业创新"。我们要及早且充分认清形势，未来要更多考量企业的科技含量、兼顾农民利益 （让1800 万猪农在市场竞争中不被挤出）、模式创新、调动既有所有生产要素的能力，以德康为例， 公司心系三农问题，在不与民争利的价值观驱动下，在国家和农民之间建立起一个可持续的技术传播体 系。 行业层面来看，在中国众多万亿市场的横向对比里，生猪行业已是低效、方差较大的那个，产业升级的 痛点、难点、卡点仍然很多，金猪十年吸引了无数跨界资本并惨淡出局，足见猪业的真实经营门槛，未 来银猪十年的机会或将属于个别新模式的科技驱动型企业，将在无外界资本进入、界内资本收缩时，或 呈现出不易复制的系统性优势。我们思考，农业行业具有十万亿市场空间，为什么养猪和水产饲料等细 分赛道率先孕育出市值与营收十倍增长的大市值企业，如牧原、海大、温氏等。因为养猪和水产的技术 深度目前还看不到尽头，参考摩尔定律存在时期的英特尔，龙头企业可以持续地通过研发的领先克服规 模增 ...

Group 1: Deep Sea Technology and Situational Awareness - The report highlights the increasing focus on "Deep Sea Technology" due to the upcoming military parade on September 3, which will showcase new combat forces including unmanned systems and underwater equipment [2][8] - The core of "Deep Sea Technology" revolves around resource security, national defense construction, and blue economy, with situational awareness being a key component [2][9] - The challenges in situational awareness construction lie in underwater signal processing, which is deemed critical for effective underwater operations [9][10] Group 2: Huaren Microelectronics (华润微) - Huaren Microelectronics operates a fully integrated supply chain model, focusing on power semiconductors and smart sensors, with a recovery expected in the power semiconductor market [11][12] - The company has a significant market share in IGBT products, particularly in industrial and automotive applications, with plans to expand into new customer segments [11][12] - The report projects a steady increase in net profit for Huaren Microelectronics from 9.59 billion to 16.50 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio decline [13] Group 3: Zhongyuan Expressway (中原高速) - Zhongyuan Expressway focuses on the construction and operation of toll roads, with a projected revenue of 6.969 billion CNY in 2024, where toll income constitutes approximately 63.98% [15][16] - The company has a young asset structure with an average remaining toll collection period of 17.04 years, indicating potential for value reassessment [16][18] - The report anticipates net profits to grow from 10.02 billion to 11.50 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a favorable PE ratio [18] Group 4: Dekang Agriculture (德康农牧) - Dekang Agriculture is transitioning from a traditional agricultural production company to a platform and technology-driven enterprise, aiming to create a "value symbiosis" ecosystem [5][22] - The company has demonstrated significant profitability advantages, with a projected average income of 770,000 CNY per modern pig farm in 2024, and a return on equity (ROE) of 48% [29][30] - The report forecasts Dekang's net profit to reach 36 billion CNY by 2027, with a PE ratio of 7.69, reflecting its strong growth potential in the agricultural sector [30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Dekang Agriculture [1][14][16] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the agricultural industry is at a pivotal moment, necessitating a reevaluation of strategies to address emerging challenges and opportunities [4][5] - Dekang is transitioning from a traditional agricultural production company to a modern service-oriented platform, focusing on a "platform + ecosystem" strategy to enhance efficiency and sustainability [10][11][12] - The company aims to create a value-sharing ecosystem that benefits all stakeholders, including farmers and enterprises, by leveraging technology and innovation [11][12][18] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The pig farming industry in China is characterized by inefficiency and significant variance in operational performance among companies, with a need for modernization and technological advancement [6][29] - The report highlights a shift in national agricultural policy towards ensuring farmers' rights and fostering enterprise innovation, indicating a supportive environment for companies like Dekang [5][27][28] Company Strategy - Dekang's "platform + ecosystem" strategy is designed to facilitate collaboration across the supply chain, enhancing overall efficiency and profitability [11][12] - The company has invested significantly in technology and innovation, aiming to improve breeding efficiency and product quality, which aligns with national agricultural goals [12][13][18] Financial Projections - The report forecasts that Dekang will serve 3,900 to 5,000 modern farms by 2027, with significant revenue growth projected from service fees [14][16] - Expected net profits before fair value adjustments for biological assets are projected to reach 36 billion, 54 billion, and 76 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, respectively [14][16] Competitive Position - Dekang is positioned to outperform competitors in terms of profitability, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 48% in 2024, significantly higher than peers [13][14] - The company’s operational efficiency is underscored by its low fixed asset investment per head, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the industry [12][36]

Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, as a rising star in the industry, has demonstrated strong learning and innovation capabilities, creating a unique integrated breeding model for family farms that has achieved leading breeding results [1] Group 1: Company Growth and Strategy - The number of family farms empowered by the company increased from 2,011 at the end of 2020 to 2,608 by May 2023, with the number of pigs served rising from 1.22 million in 2020 to 4.21 million in 2022 [2] - The company plans to increase the number of empowered family farms to 3,275, 4,500, and 6,200 by 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected pig numbers reaching 9.65 million, 13.50 million, and 18.50 million during the same period [2] - The company's breeding costs are industry-leading, with a projected total cost of 12.27 yuan per kilogram by April 2025, indicating a profit of 348 yuan per head [2] Group 2: Industry Context and Competitive Advantage - The family farm model is highly viable under the rural revitalization strategy, with the "company + family farm" model providing significant policy advantages and reducing environmental and disease risks compared to large-scale self-breeding [3] - The concentration of the pig farming industry has increased significantly post-African swine fever, with the top 26 pig companies' market share rising from 7% in 2017 to an expected 33% in 2024 [3] - The company’s cost control is attributed to its advanced breeding system, strong corporate culture, and innovative production model, which collectively enhance its competitive edge [3] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 28.22 billion, 33.75 billion, and 46.32 billion yuan, with net profits of 3.70 billion, 3.67 billion, and 6.97 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 9.52, 9.43, and 17.92 yuan, with a target price of 120 Hong Kong dollars based on comparable company valuations [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 120, compared to the latest closing price of HKD 78 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, is recognized as a rising star in the industry, demonstrating strong learning and innovation capabilities. It has creatively developed a family farm model for pig breeding and fattening, achieving leading breeding results [1][2]. - The company’s service-enabled family farms have increased from 2,011 households at the end of 2020 to 2,608 households by May 2023, with the number expected to grow significantly in the coming years [2]. - The report highlights the company's cost advantages, with a projected total cost of approximately HKD 12.27 per kilogram by April 2025, leading to a per-head profit of HKD 348, positioning it as a leader in the industry [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Family Farm Model - The family farm model is seen as highly viable under the national rural revitalization strategy, providing significant policy advantages and reducing environmental and disease risks compared to large-scale self-breeding operations [3][16]. - The model allows for smaller-scale operations, which are less prone to environmental and disease challenges, thus enhancing overall industry efficiency and supporting rural revitalization [3][22]. 2. Cost Leadership - The company has achieved a leading position in cost control due to its advanced breeding systems, excellent management, and light-asset model, with total costs decreasing consistently over the years [4][35]. - The breeding system has been developed through significant investment and has resulted in the company’s breeding performance ranking first in the nation for certain pig breeds [7][42]. 3. Growth Potential - The report anticipates that the number of family farms served by the company will continue to rise, with projections of 3,275, 4,500, and 6,200 households from 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the domestic pig farming industry, positioning itself as a potential growth leader [2][8]. 4. Financial Forecast - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to reach HKD 28.22 billion, HKD 33.75 billion, and HKD 46.32 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of HKD 3.70 billion, HKD 3.67 billion, and HKD 6.97 billion, respectively [11][8]. - The report indicates that the company’s earnings per share (EPS) will be HKD 9.52, HKD 9.43, and HKD 17.92 for the same period, reflecting strong financial performance [11][8].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in the stock price of Dekang Agriculture has brought the pig farming industry back into public focus, with a year-to-date increase of over 260% [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Dekang Agriculture's stock price surged from HKD 26 to a peak of HKD 96, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of 269% from its low [1][3]. - As of June 16, the stock closed at HKD 88.4, reflecting a cumulative increase of 224% for the year [1][2]. - The company reported a projected revenue of approximately RMB 22.463 billion for 2024, a year-on-year growth of 39%, and a net profit of about RMB 4.102 billion, reversing a loss of RMB 1.775 billion in 2023 [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The pig farming industry has maintained profitability for 13 consecutive months, primarily due to a significant reduction in production costs for leading enterprises [2]. - Despite overall profitability, pig prices have been declining this year, leading to shrinking margins for farmers [2][5]. - The industry is characterized by a "strong supply and weak demand" dynamic, making cost reduction a key competitive factor [2][8]. Group 3: Competitive Position - Dekang Agriculture has established itself as a leading player in the pig farming sector, ranking first in the compound annual growth rate of large-scale pig farming enterprises in China and sixth in national pig sales [3]. - The company has implemented an innovative "company + sow breeding and fattening farm" model, which enhances asset efficiency and stability in farmer cooperation [4]. - Analysts predict that Dekang Agriculture's net profit per pig will be significantly higher than the industry average, with estimates of RMB 350-370 per pig compared to RMB 161 for scattered farming and RMB 302 for large-scale farming [4]. Group 4: Market Trends - The stock performance of Dekang Agriculture contrasts sharply with other listed pig farming companies, many of which have seen declines in stock prices this year [5]. - The average pig price has been fluctuating around RMB 14 per kilogram, with significant year-on-year declines observed [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to a stable development phase for the pig farming industry, with potential for price recovery in the second half of the year if supply capacity is managed effectively [7][8].

Summary of the Conference Call for Dekang Agriculture Industry Overview - The current period is considered a favorable time to invest in the pig farming sector as the downward price cycle has been resolved, with policy guidance and restored market confidence expected to drive stock prices higher [2][5] - The pig farming industry has completed initial scaling, with future competition focusing on leading enterprises, emphasizing management, breeding costs, and cash flow value creation capabilities [2][6] Company Profile: Dekang Agriculture - Dekang Agriculture is the sixth largest pig farming company and the third largest yellow chicken farming company in China, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 35% in pig output over the past three years, and an expected CAGR of nearly 25% over the next three years [2][7] - The company is projected to reach a pig output of approximately 11 million heads by 2025 and 15 million heads by 2026 [7] Business Model Innovation - Dekang has innovated a light asset model by outsourcing breeding to partner farmers, avoiding capital expenditures on sow farms while leveraging the same funds for greater operational leverage [2][10] - This model has resulted in a higher long-term return on assets, with an average return on equity (ROE) of nearly 12% from 2018 to 2024, compared to the industry leader at 19% [10][12] Financial Performance - In 2024, Dekang's net profit per pig was approximately 360 yuan, significantly above the industry average, with overall costs continuing to decline in 2025 [3][12] - The company’s sales net profit margin averaged around 10% from 2018 to 2024, with asset turnover rates being higher due to lower capital investment in sow farms [12] - The expected net profit before fair value adjustments for biological assets in 2025 is close to 3.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% [14] Market Position and Valuation - Dekang's stock has shown significant growth in the Hong Kong agricultural sector, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 8 times for 2025, still below the industry average of 15 times [15][18] - The company is viewed as a cyclical growth stock with substantial valuation recovery potential, driven by rapid output growth and favorable pricing dynamics [16][18] Future Outlook - Dekang is expected to maintain rapid growth based on its innovative light asset farming model, supported by a favorable talent environment and strategic foresight [13] - The company’s poultry farming business is projected to maintain an output of around 90 million birds in 2025, with a conservative sales price expectation of 14.3 yuan per kilogram [13] Key Recommendations - Dekang Agriculture is recommended as a focus for investment due to its robust growth in poultry farming, reasonable sales price expectations, and significant growth in net profit before fair value adjustments [17][18] - The overall market confidence in the pig farming sector has improved, suggesting a potential catalyst for further growth in the coming months [16]

Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture (德康农牧) has seen a significant increase in its stock price, reaching a historical high of 96 HKD per share, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 257% since its low in January 2023 [1][3][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On June 11, 2023, Dekang Agriculture's stock price peaked at 96 HKD per share, closing at 91.75 HKD, marking a 15.34% increase for the day [1][3]. - The stock has risen from a low of 25.68 HKD per share in early January 2023, indicating a substantial year-to-date increase of about 257% [2][3]. Group 2: Business Performance - In the first five months of 2023, Dekang Agriculture sold 4.2971 million pigs, generating a revenue of 8.457 billion CNY, and sold 35.8271 million yellow feathered chickens, with a revenue of 1.099 billion CNY [2][4]. - The company reported a sales volume of 869,000 pigs in May 2023, with a revenue of 1.7 billion CNY, and a sales volume of 7.4628 million yellow feathered chickens, generating 224 million CNY in revenue [4][6]. - The average selling price for commodity pigs in May 2023 was 14.64 CNY per kilogram, which is a decrease of 1.15% from April 2023 [4]. Group 3: Cost Structure and Competitive Advantage - Dekang Agriculture has a leading position in terms of breeding costs, with the total cost of pig farming reportedly below 13 CNY per kilogram [4][5]. - The company operates two national-level pig breeding farms, with a core breeding stock of approximately 14,941 heads, including both breeding sows and boars [5]. - Analysts expect that the company will continue to benefit from its low-cost advantage and improve profitability as the industry stabilizes [8].