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新巨丰(301296)2024年报及2025年一季报点评:大客户一季度收入转正 期待并购协同效应释放

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024, but an increase in net profit, indicating a mixed performance amidst market challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.71 billion, net profit of 180 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 160 million, with year-on-year changes of -1.8%, +8.0%, and -4.2% respectively [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 360 million, net profit of 10 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 10 million, reflecting year-on-year declines of -18.2%, -75.0%, and -74.5% respectively [1]. Market Dynamics - The liquid milk market is contracting, impacting the company's liquid milk packaging revenue, which was 1.67 billion in 2024, down 1.1% year-on-year [2]. - The non-carbonated soft drink packaging revenue fell significantly by 35.4% to 30 million in 2024, compared to a growth of 45.3% in the same period of the previous year [2]. - The total packaging volume for 2024 was 12.08 billion units, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, with the company holding a 10.5% share of the Chinese aseptic packaging market and a 13.4% share in the liquid milk packaging segment [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company improved its gross margin to 23.8% in 2024, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 10.8%, up 1.0 percentage points [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 25.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points, although it decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The company experienced fluctuations in expense ratios, with selling, administrative, and financial expense ratios reported at 3.5%, 8.1%, and 5.8% respectively for Q1 2025, with significant increases in financial expenses due to acquisition loan interest [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company has become the largest shareholder of Fenmei Packaging, which is expected to enhance synergies in capacity, research and development, and customer relations, potentially increasing market share [2]. - The company anticipates that the core client, Yili, will see a positive revenue trend in Q1 2025, which may further support growth [3].