Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with major cities seeing prolonged declines in housing prices, leading to a cautious outlook for potential buyers and investors [3][4][5]. Market Trends - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities has been declining for 29 consecutive months, with inventory turnover periods in cities like Shenzhen reaching 7.9 months and 33.2 months in smaller cities like Fuqing [3]. - Nationally, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, and sales revenue dropped by 19.2% from January to November 2024 [3]. - In April 2024, the sales revenue of newly built commercial housing was approximately 623.7 billion yuan, reflecting a more than 40% month-on-month decline [3]. Influential Figures - Notable figures like Jack Ma and Li Ka-shing have expressed skepticism about the current housing market, with Ma predicting a decline in housing prices and Li selling significant assets, indicating a lack of confidence in the market [4][5]. Economic Factors - The income-to-housing price ratio in first-tier cities is around 40, while in second and third-tier cities it is about 25, suggesting that average earners would need to save for decades to afford a home [5]. - The decline in consumer confidence is creating a vicious cycle where falling prices lead to reduced buying activity, further driving down prices [5]. Policy Implications - Current policies, including reduced down payment ratios and lower mortgage rates, have not significantly revived market confidence, indicating that policy measures alone may not be sufficient [3][6]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has plans to continue efforts to stabilize the real estate market in 2025, which may include further monetary easing [6]. Investment Strategy - For first-time buyers or those looking to upgrade, the current favorable policies may present a good opportunity, especially in core urban areas with strong demand [6]. - Investors are advised to be cautious, focusing on prime locations and avoiding non-core areas, as the market is shifting towards a "housing for living, not speculation" model [6][7].
2025年,是“尽快买房”还是“再等一等”?马云和李嘉诚不谋而合
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-21 10:52