这几年买美债的台湾人，亏得太惨了

Core Insights - Taiwanese investors have poured approximately $73 billion into U.S. bond ETFs over the past few years, but are now facing significant losses of up to 12% in May due to a combination of a strong TWD and declining U.S. bonds [1][2] - The Economist's semi-annual Big Mac Index indicates that the TWD is undervalued by 58.8% against the USD, the most significant undervaluation among 58 currencies assessed [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Despite the warning signs, Taiwanese investors have continued to invest heavily in overseas assets, expecting the TWD to depreciate further [2] - The largest and oldest industry ETF, Yuanta 20-Year Plus U.S. Treasury ETF, has seen its market value shrink by 13% since early April, with losses since the Fed began raising interest rates amounting to nearly one-third since its inception in 2017 [2] Group 2: ETF Market Dynamics - Taiwan has a relatively large ETF market, with $196 billion in assets as of the end of 2024, accounting for 66% of total investment fund assets, equating to an average of nearly $8,400 per person in ETFs, with a significant portion in bond ETFs [3] - Regulatory attempts to curb the "Formosa bonds" market led to the development of a "Formosa ETF" ecosystem, allowing local investors to bypass holding limits while primarily investing in U.S. bonds [3] Group 3: Redemption Trends - Taiwanese investors began withdrawing funds from bond ETFs in February and March, with net outflows of $1.1 billion, indicating a trend of redemption prior to significant fluctuations in the TWD [4] - The redemption trend accelerated in April, with net redemptions reaching $817 million, up from $504 million in March and $192 million in February, resulting in total assets dropping to $7.8 billion from a peak of $9.4 billion at the end of April [4] - Despite recent losses and redemptions, the total assets in Taiwanese U.S. bond ETFs remain ten times the size from early 2019, suggesting substantial risk if further withdrawals occur [4]