3 6 Ke·2025-05-21 11:38Core Viewpoint - Diageo, the world's largest spirits group, is considering significant asset disposals as part of its "acceleration plan" to streamline operations and reduce debt levels, which may impact its stake in the Chinese liquor company Shui Jing Fang [1][3][9]. Group 1: Diageo's Strategy and Financial Performance - Diageo has announced an "acceleration plan" aimed at cost savings and selective asset disposals, indicating a shift towards a more agile global operating model [1][3][9]. - The company is currently burdened with nearly $21 billion in debt and has seen its stock price drop approximately 50% from its historical peak due to declining sales and profit margins [3][9]. - Diageo's global sales decreased by 1.4% to $20.3 billion in the fiscal year 2024, with a challenging consumer environment expected to persist until the end of fiscal year 2025 [7][8]. Group 2: Asset Disposals and Market Focus - Analysts predict that Diageo's Chinese liquor business, along with other underperforming brands, may be among the assets considered for sale as part of the acceleration plan [3][9]. - The company has previously adopted a "light asset" model in volatile markets, which may now expand to include more significant asset disposals [3][9]. - Diageo's management has committed to achieving approximately $3 billion in free cash flow annually starting from fiscal year 2026, alongside a $500 million cost-saving initiative over three years [8][9]. Group 3: Shui Jing Fang's Performance and Management Changes - Shui Jing Fang, under Diageo's control, has experienced fluctuating performance, with revenue growing from 850 million yuan to 4.63 billion yuan between 2015 and 2021, but facing challenges in recent years [14][15]. - In fiscal year 2024, Shui Jing Fang reported total revenue of 5.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with net profit rising by 5.7% to 1.34 billion yuan [15]. - The management team at Shui Jing Fang has seen frequent changes, with the current general manager being the first local manager not from Diageo, indicating a potential shift in operational strategy [15]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The Asia-Pacific market, including China, has not performed well for Diageo, with organic net sales growth of only 1.6% in the region, primarily due to weakness in China and Southeast Asia [16]. - Diageo's CEO has categorized the Chinese liquor market as lacking sufficient scale, suggesting a need to explore new opportunities [16].