一文看懂如何构建稳健的永久投资组合

Group 1 - The concept of a Permanent Investment Portfolio was introduced by Harry Browne in the 1980s, aiming for stable returns through diversification across different economic conditions [2] - The portfolio consists of four asset classes: 25% stocks, 25% long-term bonds, 25% cash (short-term treasury bills), and 25% gold [2] - The design of this portfolio is intended to cover various economic scenarios, including prosperity, inflation, recession, and deflation [4][5] Group 2 - During periods of prosperity, stocks perform best due to increased corporate earnings driving up stock prices [5] - In inflationary periods, gold appreciates due to its value preservation properties as prices rise and currency devalues [5] - In recessionary periods, long-term bond prices increase as interest rates typically decline [5] - In deflationary periods, cash provides safety and flexibility amidst economic contraction and market volatility [5] Group 3 - Steps to implement a Permanent Investment Portfolio include allocating 25% of investment capital to each asset class and selecting appropriate initial investment tools [6][7] - Regular rebalancing of the portfolio is necessary to maintain the 25% allocation for each asset class, which involves selling outperforming assets and buying underperforming ones [8] Group 4 - Historical performance since 1964 shows an annualized return of approximately 8.5% for the Permanent Investment Portfolio, with lower volatility compared to a 60/40 portfolio [9] - Backtesting results for a Nasdaq 100 version of the portfolio indicate a cumulative return of about 135% over ten years, with an annualized return of 8.89% and a maximum drawdown of 8.57% [9][10] - The backtest for a CSI 300 version shows a cumulative return of 78% over ten years, with an annualized return of 5.98% and a maximum drawdown of 9.95% [12] Group 5 - The Permanent Investment Portfolio is designed to be a "permanent" strategy, requiring infrequent adjustments, making it suitable for investors who prefer low trading frequency [14] - It is considered a safe and stable strategy, particularly for low-risk investors focused on wealth preservation [14] - Potential limitations include the performance of long-term bonds in rising interest rate environments and the overall performance lag during prolonged economic booms [14][15]