Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for the Federal Reserve to improve its communication and forecasting methods regarding economic predictions and monetary policy responses, suggesting that a multi-scenario approach would enhance flexibility and market understanding [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Practices - The Federal Reserve currently releases four Economic Projections Summaries (SEP) annually, which include forecasts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members on economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and short-term interest rates [1]. - Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argues that the Fed should adopt a quarterly monetary policy report similar to other central banks, which would provide consistent economic forecasts and alternative scenarios [1][2]. Group 2: Proposed Changes and Benefits - Bernanke believes that a multi-scenario model would allow the Fed to adjust more swiftly when economic developments deviate from central forecasts, thereby minimizing market disruption [2]. - The article suggests that if the Fed had prepared for higher-than-expected inflation in 2021, it could have adjusted its policies more effectively without causing market turmoil [2]. Group 3: Criticism and Challenges - Some, like former monetary policy chief Bill English, argue that releasing two sets of forecasts could create confusion and that the public pays little attention to staff-generated alternative scenarios [2][3]. - English also points out that staff reports do not dictate monetary policy, thus offering limited insights into the Fed's responses [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, the article anticipates that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may propose the release of staff forecasts later this year, although the complexity of implementation may delay this until after Powell's term ends in May 2026 [4]. - The article emphasizes the urgency for the Fed to catch up with other central banks in terms of communication and forecasting practices [4].
前纽约联储主席杜德利:美联储应为市场的意外做好准备
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-05-21 13:09