TRIP.COM(09961) 格隆汇·2025-05-21 17:44Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit exceeding market expectations, driven by controlled marketing expenses and favorable foreign exchange gains [1][3]. Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 16% to 13.8 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations; non-GAAP net profit reached 4.2 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 9% [1]. - The company's hotel booking revenue in Q1 2025 was 5.54 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 1.4% [1]. Development Trends - Domestic tourism demand remains robust, with hotel prices expected to stabilize. The company anticipates a mid-to-low double-digit year-on-year growth in domestic hotel night stays for Q2 2025, with a narrowing decline in Average Daily Rate (ADR) [1]. - For outbound travel, the company expects a 15-20% year-on-year increase in outbound flight and hotel bookings in Q2 2025, recovering to 120% of 2019 levels, despite challenges in the Thai market [2]. Growth Expectations - Trip.com is projected to achieve high growth, with international OTA bookings increasing over 60% in Q1, and inbound travel bookings nearly doubling [3]. - The company expects to maintain a 50%+ revenue growth rate for Trip.com in the second half of the year, supported by strong demand from inbound tourism policies and brand expansion into new markets [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 3% to 16.4 billion yuan and 18.9 billion yuan, respectively, while maintaining revenue expectations [3]. - The target prices for the company's shares are set at 588.5 for Hong Kong stocks, reflecting a potential upside of 13% and 14% from current prices [3].