二等强权的悲哀

Group 1 - India's current international political status is likened to that of Japan in the 1930s, being a "second-tier power" that appears "independent" but is actually being utilized by various parties [1] - The geopolitical environment of South Asia is compared to East Asia during Japan's expansion, where both regions are not the focal points of global political turmoil [3][45] - India has ambitions to expand its influence over the entire South Asian subcontinent, including Sri Lanka and the Maldives, viewing them as part of its sphere of influence [4] Group 2 - India is heavily reliant on oil imports, being the third-largest oil importer after China and the US, with an 80% dependency rate, which is higher than China's [45] - The geographical constraints of South Asia limit India's ability to project power into the resource-rich Eurasian landmass, making it difficult to establish regional dominance [49] - India's aspiration is to control the Indian Ocean, positioning itself as a "miniature version of the United States," especially in the context of the relatively weak US presence in the region [50][52] Group 3 - The dynamics between China, Russia, and India create a non-Western power structure, where Russia and China act as buffers for India against Western pressures [54] - If the balance of power shifts unfavorably between Western and non-Western blocs, India could face significant challenges, similar to the pressures China would encounter [55] - Should China surpass the US, India's strategic significance may diminish, lacking the military strength that Japan had during its expansionist phase [56]