罕见，25年来第一次，中国退居全球第三，背后信号很不寻常

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds, selling $18.9 billion in March and falling to $765.4 billion, now ranking third globally behind the UK [1][2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - This marks the first time in 25 years that China has dropped to third place in US Treasury bond holdings since becoming one of the top two holders in 2000 [2]. - China's peak holdings exceeded $1.3 trillion in 2015, accounting for 23.2% of total foreign holdings [2]. - The reduction in holdings began during the trade war initiated by Trump, with China relinquishing its top position back to Japan [4]. Group 2: Current Trends - As of now, China's share of US Treasury bonds has shrunk to approximately 2.1%, indicating a significant "decoupling" from US financial assets [5]. - In March, while China sold off bonds, overseas investments in US Treasury bonds saw a net inflow of $161.8 billion, highlighting China's unique position [6]. - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen sharply, reaching 4.48%, which has put pressure on the US financial markets [6][7]. Group 3: Implications for US Debt - The upcoming maturity of $6.5 trillion in US Treasury bonds in June poses a significant challenge, as it represents 70% of the year's total maturities [8]. - Rising interest rates could lead to increased debt servicing costs, potentially exceeding $200 billion [9]. - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating for the first time in history, reflecting growing concerns about US debt sustainability [10]. Group 4: China's Strategy - China has been gradually reducing its US Treasury holdings while increasing its gold reserves, indicating a shift towards risk diversification [15][19]. - As of April, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous increase over six months [19]. - The geopolitical landscape, including tensions over trade and territorial issues, has influenced China's strategy towards US debt [19][20]. Group 5: Global Context - The situation mirrors the financial weaponization seen in the case of Russia, which drastically reduced its US Treasury holdings following sanctions [21]. - The total US debt is approaching $37 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the US credit system [21][22]. - China's remaining holdings of US Treasury bonds serve as a strategic asset in negotiations, reflecting the ongoing complexities in US-China relations [22].