这是“衡量美国财政风险的最佳市场指标”

Core Insights - Deutsche Bank warns that U.S. fiscal risks are accelerating, with the widening divergence between U.S. Treasury yields and the USD/JPY exchange rate becoming a crucial market indicator [1] - The recent strength of the Japanese yen, despite rising Japanese long-term yields, is seen as evidence of reduced foreign participation in the U.S. Treasury market [4][6] - The bank believes that the sale of Japanese government bonds poses a greater issue for the U.S. Treasury market by making Japanese assets more attractive to local investors, further encouraging divestment from U.S. assets [6] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange research head, George Saravelos, notes that the strong yen indicates a lack of foreign investment in U.S. Treasuries, highlighting U.S. fiscal risks [1] - The bank argues that if Japan were truly facing fiscal concerns, the yen would weaken rather than strengthen, given Japan's positive net foreign asset position [4] - Following a weak U.S. Treasury auction, Saravelos observed a "very negative" reaction from market participants, indicating that the U.S. stock market may struggle to maintain resilience in this environment [7] Group 2 - Saravelos emphasizes that the simultaneous weakening of the dollar is a clear signal that foreign buyers are resisting U.S. assets, reflecting long-standing concerns about U.S. fiscal risks [7] - The core issue lies in foreign investors' unwillingness to fund the U.S. dual deficits (fiscal and trade) at current price levels [7] - Saravelos concludes that the solution to the current predicament is complex and ultimately lies with Congress rather than the Federal Reserve, suggesting that a depreciation of the dollar may be the final release valve for the U.S. dual deficit problem [7]