【期货热点追踪】几内亚事件持续发酵，铝土矿进口保持高增长，氧化铝未来行情仍可期？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of Guinea's mining policy changes on the alumina market, particularly the withdrawal of mining licenses, which raises concerns about reduced supply and increased production costs for alumina [1][2][4] - Guinea's government has declared several mining rights, including bauxite, iron ore, and gold, as strategic reserve areas, which means these resources will not be available for regular commercial mining in the short term [2][3] - In April 2025, China's alumina imports reached a record high of 20.68 million tons, with Guinea being the largest supplier, accounting for 16.73 million tons, reflecting a 25.67% month-on-month increase and a 45.44% year-on-year increase [3][4] Group 2 - The recent disruptions in Guinea's mining sector are expected to support alumina prices in the short term due to supply concerns, although the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to potential overcapacity in the alumina industry [6][8] - Analysts suggest that if the situation in Guinea does not stabilize, the ongoing supply disruptions could lead to further price increases for alumina, with each $1 increase in bauxite prices potentially raising alumina costs by 30 CNY per ton [9] - The market is closely monitoring the recovery of production capacities and the impact of Guinea's mining policies on alumina and aluminum prices, as any prolonged supply issues could significantly affect the industry [7][8]