金荣中国：美伊核谈判决定局势走向，金价冲高企稳维持多头持续

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations on May 21, opening at $3277.18 per ounce, reaching a high of $3320.61, a low of $3275.19, and closing at $3311.91 [1] Trade Relations - The EU is expected to share a revised trade proposal with the US to energize negotiations with the Trump administration, though skepticism remains about reaching a transatlantic agreement. The new document includes proposals that consider US interests, such as international labor rights, environmental standards, and economic security, aiming to gradually reduce tariffs on non-sensitive agricultural and industrial products to zero [2] - US Commerce Secretary Ross expressed hope to reach trade agreements with most major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer [3] Geopolitical Situation - Israeli sources indicate that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities amid a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations. Israeli military believes the operational window for a successful attack may soon close, leading to potential military actions lasting at least a week, which could have complex and dangerous implications for the region [5] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a decrease in holdings by 1.72 tons, bringing the total to 919.88 tons [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 94.6%, with a 5.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For July, the probability of maintaining rates is 73.1%, with cumulative probabilities of a 25 basis point cut at 25.7% and a 50 basis point cut at 1.2% [6] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a slight upward trend, with short-term resistance levels being tested. The market is currently in a consolidation phase after a significant rise, with technical indicators suggesting a cautious bullish outlook [9][10] Trading Strategy - Suggested trading ranges include aggressive buy positions around $3285 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and profit targets above $3305, as well as conservative buy positions around $3250 with similar stop loss and profit targets. For short positions, aggressive entry at $3328 with a stop loss and profit target below $3310 is recommended [11]