美联储研究：银行向私募信贷提供信贷构成“系统性风险”

Core Viewpoint - The deepening connections between U.S. banks and private credit institutions, led by firms like Blackstone, Apollo, and Ares, may pose systemic risks to the financial system during economic downturns [1][2]. Group 1: Growth of Private Credit Market - The U.S. private credit market has experienced explosive growth, expanding from $46 billion in 2000 to approximately $1 trillion in 2023, particularly accelerating after 2019 [1]. - As of March 2023, bank loans to non-bank financial institutions, including private equity firms and private credit funds, surged to about $1.2 trillion, marking a 20% increase year-over-year [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Arbitrage - The phenomenon of banks providing funding to private credit funds is a result of regulatory arbitrage following the 2008 financial crisis, where banks were restricted from directly offering high-leverage loans [2][3]. - This shift has allowed banks to indirectly participate in high-risk lending through private credit funds, creating a regulatory arbitrage situation despite numerous financial reforms post-2008 [3]. Group 3: Systemic Risks from Credit Lines - One of the main risks identified is the reliance of private credit funds on revolving credit lines from banks, which could lead to systemic liquidity risks if multiple lenders withdraw funds simultaneously during adverse macroeconomic conditions [4]. - The financing provided by banks to private credit funds is considered safer than pre-2008 leveraged buyout loans, as it is supported by numerous smaller loans, minimizing risk exposure to any single business [4]. Group 4: Challenges in Private Equity - The head of the Kuwait Investment Authority warned that the private equity industry is facing significant challenges, particularly in returning funds to investors amid a persistent valuation gap between buyers and sellers [6]. - As of the end of 2024, private equity firms hold approximately $3.6 trillion in unrealized value across 29,000 unsold portfolio companies, with the ratio of funds allocated to net asset value dropping to a record low of 11% [6].