4月“死给特朗普看”之后，市场马上又要演一遍？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is facing new challenges as rising government borrowing costs and a potential increase in the deficit threaten to impact fiscal sustainability and economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's and the challenges in passing the Republican tax bill have led to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, causing yields to rise sharply [1]. - The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.089%, the highest level since October 2023, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.595%, marking its peak since February 2023 [1]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the Republican tax plan could increase the deficit to about 7% of GDP, an unprecedented level for a low-unemployment economy [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Concerns - The rising interest rates mean the government will need to allocate more funds to cover interest payments on nearly $29 trillion in debt, potentially leading to higher taxes or reduced government services for citizens [4]. - The high-interest environment not only affects government finances but also increases borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which could suppress economic activity [4]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - There is skepticism regarding whether the Trump administration will make significant fiscal adjustments, as Republican leaders believe that economic growth from tariffs and deregulation will offset revenue losses from tax cuts [5]. - Analysts suggest that there will be no substantial fiscal consolidation in the foreseeable future, and the U.S. is likely to continue running large deficits [5]. - The Trump administration's previous promises to address the deficit through significant spending cuts have been scaled back, with current Republican sentiment showing less concern for fiscal deficits compared to a decade ago [5].