一个时代落幕？鲍威尔发声，美联储不再信奉旧神话，全球市场慌了

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the era of ultra-low interest rates and aggressive monetary policies is over, as the U.S. enters a "new normal" of high inflation [1][3] - Powell acknowledges a fundamental shift in the global economic landscape since 2020, necessitating a reevaluation of the previous monetary policy framework [3][8] - The previous framework relied on a "flexible average inflation target" to manage short-term inflation spikes, but this approach is now deemed inadequate [6][19] Group 2 - Powell's statement indicates that the zero lower bound on interest rates is no longer a baseline scenario, marking a significant policy shift [8][9] - The actual interest rates adjusted for inflation are rising, signaling deeper economic changes rather than mere cyclical fluctuations [9][11] - The previous reliance on globalization for price stability is diminishing, as geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have emerged [11][15] Group 3 - The Fed's tools and methodologies must be rethought in light of the changing economic environment, with a reduced emphasis on traditional employment metrics [15][17] - The "flexible average inflation target" is under review, as it has struggled to cope with the pressures of the pandemic and geopolitical risks [19][21] - Powell emphasizes the importance of maintaining a 2% inflation target as a guiding principle, despite market speculation about potential adjustments [21][27] Group 4 - The central bank's role is evolving to address more frequent and persistent supply shocks, which cannot be managed solely through interest rate adjustments [21][23] - The communication strategy of the Fed is also being reassessed to better convey the complexities of the current economic landscape [25][27] - The global economy may experience a bifurcated state, with Western economies facing high inflation and low growth, while production-oriented economies may struggle with overcapacity and low inflation [27][29]