业内表示房地产会在2026年趋稳，释放哪些信号？今年该不该买房？

Policy Level - Continuous policy support has been observed since 2023, with multiple interest rate cuts and adjustments in mortgage rates, as well as the cancellation of purchase restrictions in various regions, indicating the government's commitment to stabilize the real estate market [1] - The government plans to build 2 million units of affordable housing over the next five years, further solidifying support for the real estate sector [1] Precision of Policies - Policies are not only focused on liquidity support for real estate companies but also on optimizing home purchase policies, such as lowering down payment ratios and increasing housing fund loan limits to stimulate demand [2] Market Supply and Demand - Demand remains supported by urbanization, with a projected urbanization rate of 66.16% in 2024, leaving room for over 200 million people to move to cities in the next decade, driving housing demand [3] - The inventory turnover period in first-tier cities is shortening, with a projected 30% increase in second-hand housing transactions in 2025, indicating a recovery in the market [3] Supply Side Improvement - By Q4 2024, national commercial housing sales area is expected to rise by 12% quarter-on-quarter, with first-tier city prices stabilizing [4] - The land auction premium rate is anticipated to rebound to 15% in 2025, reflecting improved developer confidence in the market [4] Industry Development - The industry is accelerating its transformation from high-leverage, high-turnover models to "light asset operations" and service-oriented real estate companies, diversifying into property management and long-term rentals [5] - Competition is intensifying in terms of housing quality, with increasing consumer demand for green buildings and smart communities [6] Market Outlook for Home Buyers - For first-time homebuyers, the stabilization of the market reduces the risk of significant price fluctuations, making it a suitable time to purchase homes, especially with supportive policies lowering costs [8] - However, caution is advised in lower-tier cities where price pressures and inventory issues may persist [9] Investment Considerations - The era of guaranteed profits in real estate investment is over, with potential declines in investment returns and increased risks, necessitating a more cautious approach [10] - Investors should closely monitor policy changes and market dynamics to identify valuable investment opportunities in emerging areas and prime locations [11]