风口纵横｜美债收益率飙升背后：美国政府已被“债”套牢

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. financial market is experiencing a "triple kill" scenario with significant declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, leading to increased yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and heightened market volatility [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 22, the three major U.S. stock indices recorded their largest drop in a month, with the S&P 500 down 1.61%, the Nasdaq down 1.41%, and the Dow Jones down 1.91% [2]. - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, surged by 15.42% [2]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds on May 22 revealed a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking a 1.2 basis point increase from the pre-auction rate, the largest tail risk in six months [4]. - The demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening, as indicated by a drop in the bid-to-cover ratio from an average of 2.57 to 2.46 [4][5]. Group 3: Credit Rating and Market Sentiment - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has led to a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, pushing the 30-year bond yield higher and negatively impacting stock futures [5]. - The market's reaction is attributed to concerns over the long-term fiscal deficit and debt pressure exacerbated by recent legislative developments [5]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The rising yields on U.S. Treasuries indicate a potential increase in government borrowing costs, which could lead to a vicious cycle of rising yields, increased financing costs, and a heavier debt burden [10]. - The U.S. government is projected to spend over $1 trillion on debt interest in the 2024 fiscal year, a 29% increase from the previous year, marking the highest level since 1998 [8][10]. Group 5: Global Market Effects - The increase in U.S. Treasury yields is likely to pressure risk asset valuations, potentially impacting high U.S. stock prices and global capital markets [11]. - Other countries' bond markets are also experiencing fluctuations, with yields in Germany and the UK rising as well [11]. - The rising yields may weaken the dollar's safe-haven appeal, accelerating the global trend of de-dollarization [11]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that U.S. Treasury yields will remain high due to economic resilience and inflationary pressures, while medium to long-term forecasts indicate a potential decline in yields as economic growth slows and the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts [12].