猪价跌破新低！还没完，可能还得跌

Core Viewpoint - The pig price has significantly declined in May, dropping below 15 yuan/kg and reaching a low of 14.51 yuan/kg, marking the lowest level of the year due to increased supply pressure, weak consumption, and rising costs [2][10]. Group 1: Supply Pressure - The supply pressure in the pig market has been substantial, with the peak of piglet output expected in the second quarter due to the increase in breeding sows from May to November last year [4]. - The ongoing supply pressure is expected to continue, especially as the summer heat approaches, which may further weaken pork consumption and increase the pressure on pig output [10]. Group 2: Consumption Issues - Pork consumption has been lagging for some time, with a notable drop in May following the May Day holiday, leading to a significant mismatch with the increased supply [6]. - The weak consumption trend is anticipated to persist, exacerbating the pressure on pig prices as the market enters the hotter months [10]. Group 3: Cost Factors - Although pig prices have not increased, the costs associated with raising pigs have risen due to higher prices for feed ingredients like corn and wheat, despite a temporary drop in soybean meal prices [7]. - Rising costs create a dual challenge for farmers: while some may hold onto their pigs in hopes of better prices, the cash flow constraints may lead many to sell early, further driving down prices [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has turned increasingly bearish as pig prices continue to decline, leading to a growing expectation of further price drops [11]. - The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has diminished due to the negative price differentials, resulting in a decrease in support for pig prices and an inclination towards early sales [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The second quarter is likely to be characterized by a confluence of negative factors, potentially marking the lowest point for pig prices this year, with only temporary relief expected from upcoming holidays [13].