美债信用风险与美元信用下滑形成共振，需警惕其向全球金融市场传导

Group 1 - Recent volatility in the US Treasury market has been exacerbated by Moody's third downgrade of the US credit rating, raising concerns about debt sustainability as the debt-to-interest payment ratio is projected to rise from 73% in 2024 to 78% by 2035, significantly higher than that of peer sovereign nations [1][2] - The auction of Japan's 20-year bonds saw the lowest demand since 2012, indicating potential liquidity risks in the bond market, while the US faces a projected interest expenditure of $951 billion in 2024, accounting for 17% of federal spending [1][2] - The global trend of de-dollarization is evident as emerging market central banks continue to increase gold holdings, with a forecast of 1,136 tons purchased in 2024, marking a historical high [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a comprehensive review of its monetary policy framework, emphasizing an "anti-inflation priority" and adjusting its approach to the relationship between employment and inflation targets [3][4] - The Fed's new framework suggests a reduced likelihood of preemptive rate hikes before the labor market overheats, focusing instead on inflation performance [3][4] - Market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut have diverged, with predictions shifting from June to July, influenced by tariff policies and political dynamics [5][6] Group 3 - The adjustment in the Fed's policy framework reflects its commitment to addressing the "new normal" in the post-pandemic economy, with anticipated rate cuts in 2025, potentially occurring between late Q2 and Q3 [5][6] - The interplay between gold's safe-haven appeal and the Fed's policy expectations is expected to create volatility in the gold market, with key events in June and July being closely monitored [6][7] - The risk of US Treasury market volatility transmitting to global financial markets is a concern, particularly for emerging markets facing increased external debt pressure and rising corporate financing costs [7][8]