日本债务危机浮出水面，石破自曝财政比希腊危险

Core Viewpoint - The recent auction of Japanese government bonds has raised significant concerns about the country's fiscal health, with comparisons being made to Greece's financial crisis, highlighting a deteriorating debt structure and investor sentiment [1][3][9]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The bidding multiple for 20-year Japanese government bonds fell to 2.5 times, the lowest since 2012, indicating a lack of investor interest [1]. - The tail difference surged to 1.14, the highest since 1987, reflecting severe market discontent [1]. - The Bank of Japan, as the largest holder of government debt, currently owns over 52% of it, raising concerns about the sustainability of this model as it begins to taper its bond purchases [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Health - Japan's total national debt has exceeded 1,250 trillion yen, accounting for over 260% of its GDP, the highest among major economies [3]. - The Prime Minister's admission that Japan's fiscal situation is not better than Greece's underscores the severity of the issue [1][6]. - The ongoing reliance on central bank purchases, coupled with an aging population and stagnant economic growth, has created a vicious cycle that threatens fiscal stability [6][9]. Group 3: Future Implications - The current market conditions suggest that the Japanese bond market is transitioning from a "safe haven" to a potential "tinderbox," with increasing risks of a debt crisis [7][9]. - If the Japanese government continues to issue new debt to cover old debt without fundamental fiscal reforms, a "bond bubble" burst is imminent [9]. - The implications of a potential debt crisis in Japan could extend beyond its borders, potentially triggering global financial instability [9].