美国“股债汇”齐跌，“抛售美国”交易卷土重来？

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury issued $16 billion in 20-year bonds with a yield of 5.047%, reflecting weak demand for U.S. debt and forcing rates higher to attract investors [2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's proposed spending bill could increase public debt by $3.3 trillion by FY 2034, raising the annual deficit to $2.9 trillion, which is 6.9% of GDP [3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. bond credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising public debt and interest payments, with warnings that the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise from 100% in 2024 to 125% by 2035 [7] Group 2 - The unpredictability of Trump's policies and the risk of expanding the fiscal deficit have led investors to shy away from long-term bonds, pushing yields higher and bond prices lower [7][8] - The recent auction of 20-year bonds faced weak demand, further undermining market confidence [9] - The U.S. stock market also experienced significant sell-offs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.91% and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices falling 1.41% and 1.61%, respectively [12] Group 3 - The ongoing issue of the U.S. fiscal deficit is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, with both parties contributing to its expansion [14] - The combination of rising interest rates and cost increases due to tariffs may exert pressure on U.S. economic growth, potentially leading to stagflation risks [14] - The recent bond auction may be seen as a critical moment for the market, but it could also be just the beginning of increased volatility in capital markets [14]