全球风偏强势反弹！美银数据揭示牛市信号 但“长期停滞”阴云未散

Core Viewpoint - The global risk appetite indicator has rebounded from a low level to a neutral level, indicating a strong recovery in investor sentiment, although challenges remain in corporate earnings and economic data [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The global stock market risk appetite indicator has significantly improved from the deep panic level (historical 9th percentile) in early April to the neutral level (historical 55th percentile) [1]. - Investor concerns about an economic recession have decreased, with the probability of a U.S. recession dropping from a recent high of 66% to 38% [3]. - Historical data shows that in the past 38 years, there have been 32 instances where global risk appetite rebounded from panic to neutral, with only 4 instances returning to panic, suggesting a potential for further market upturns [3]. Group 2: Regional Sentiment Disparities - Different regions exhibit significant disparities in investor sentiment, with countries like India (32nd percentile), South Korea (14), Indonesia (9), and Thailand (12) showing low risk appetite, indicating potential rebound opportunities [4]. - Conversely, countries such as Singapore (97), the Philippines (83), South Africa (91), Poland (88), and Mexico (76) are nearing or entering the "euphoric" zone, suggesting potential overvaluation and caution against pullback risks [4]. Group 3: Risk-Love Indicator - The current Risk-Love Indicator shows a global score of 55, with notable scores for various regions: Japan (54), Emerging Markets (27), Asia ex-Japan (28), China (63), and others indicating varying levels of investor sentiment [5].