「教」量｜“高校大市”变迁史：广州稳坐“第一城”，总量拐点何时至？

Group 1 - In 2024, 25 out of 27 trillion GDP cities reported an increase in the number of ordinary (vocational) undergraduate students, with five cities exceeding 1.1 million students each [1][2] - The total number of ordinary and vocational undergraduate students in China reached 38.91 million in 2024, reflecting a 3.08% increase from 37.75 million in 2023 [1][3] - The number of undergraduate admissions in 2024 was 10.689 million, indicating a continuous upward trend in higher education enrollment [1][3] Group 2 - Guangzhou remains the city with the highest number of undergraduate students, reaching 1.498 million in 2024, up from 1.0193 million in 2014 [4] - Zhengzhou has surpassed Wuhan to become the second city for undergraduate students, with a growth rate of 82.87% from 783,200 in 2014 to 1.4322 million in 2024 [7] - Chengdu and Chongqing also saw significant increases in student numbers, with Chengdu reaching 1.157 million and Chongqing 1.1279 million in 2024 [8] Group 3 - The overall number of undergraduate students in China has been steadily increasing, with a jump from 5.561 million in 2000 to 38.913 million in 2024 [3][10] - The growth rate of graduate students has outpaced that of undergraduates, with the number of graduate students rising from 1.848 million in 2014 to 4.095 million in 2024, a growth of 121.59% [10][12] Group 4 - Future trends indicate that the number of graduate students is expected to continue rising, supported by national policies aimed at expanding graduate education [12][14] - The focus for undergraduate education will shift towards expanding vocational and quality undergraduate programs, with a potential peak in enrollment numbers around 2036 due to declining birth rates [13][14] Group 5 - Local governments are encouraged to align higher education development with regional industry needs and employment trends, optimizing academic structures to meet urgent professional demands [14][15] - There is a need for sustainable development strategies in higher education, focusing on quality and structural optimization rather than mere expansion [15]