钢之家创始人、董事长吴文章：2025年中国钢材市场供应与需求挑战并存

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese steel market is expected to face a relatively abundant supply in 2025, despite various influencing factors on production and demand [1][2][3] Group 2 - From January to April 2023, China's crude steel production showed steady growth, while the supply of crude steel resources declined, and steel production and resource supply increased significantly [1] - The steel export volume remains high, but there are concerns about potential declines due to improved export documentation requirements and anti-dumping measures abroad [2] - The issuance of special bonds has slightly accelerated compared to the previous year, but the total investment in new local projects has significantly decreased [2] - The steel industry is expected to face high cost pressures in 2025, with iron ore supply improving due to weakened domestic demand and increased overseas supply [2] - The government has implemented macro-control policies to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, including a joint statement to significantly reduce bilateral tariffs [2] Group 3 - The domestic steel consumption is projected to decrease by approximately 30 million tons in 2025 compared to 2024, with steel exports potentially reducing by 15 to 25 million tons [3] - If crude steel production can be controlled at 950 million tons for the year, a reduction of about 5 million tons from the previous year, the domestic steel market supply and demand may achieve basic balance [3] - Domestic steel prices are currently at a global low, with a slight rebound expected after the second quarter, but facing severe challenges in the third quarter [3] - The average price for the year is expected to drop by about 300 yuan per ton compared to 2024, with ordinary steel prices likely fluctuating below the industry average cost line [3] - Key factors to monitor include the progress of China-U.S. trade talks, changes in international geopolitical conflicts, steel industry policies, foreign trade export conditions, and fluctuations in commodity prices [3]