日债惊雷乍响，日本央行鸽派委员：还没到干预的地步！

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy committee member Asahi Noguchi believes there is no need for the central bank to intervene in the bond market despite recent significant increases in ultra-long-term bond yields, describing the volatility as "rapid but not unusual" [1] - Noguchi emphasizes the necessity to pause interest rate hikes until the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy becomes clearer, indicating that current economic uncertainty makes rate adjustments meaningless [1][3] - The recent rise in ultra-long-term bond yields has reached historical highs, influenced by political calls for large-scale fiscal spending, while short-term bond yields remain stable due to reduced expectations for rate hikes [1][2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan exited its large-scale stimulus program last year, which included maintaining bond yields around zero, and raised the short-term policy rate to 0.5% in January, citing progress in achieving the 2% inflation target [2] - In the upcoming policy meeting, the Bank of Japan will conduct a mid-term evaluation of its bond reduction plan and consider strategies for after April 2026, with Noguchi suggesting no major adjustments are necessary at this time [3] - Concerns over global economic slowdown due to U.S. tariffs have led the Bank of Japan to significantly lower its growth forecasts, raising questions about the sustainability of wage increases supporting consumption and the overall economy [3]