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Core Insights - The recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market is primarily driven by foreign investors' reluctance to finance the U.S. fiscal deficits, leading to a decline in confidence regarding the U.S. fiscal situation [1][5] - The U.S. government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in Treasury securities maturing by June 2025, raising concerns about the long-term repayment capacity of the U.S. [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. bond market has faced significant selling pressure, with the 20-year Treasury auction on May 21 yielding a bid rate of 5.047%, marking the second instance of surpassing the 5% threshold [3] - The bid-to-cover ratio fell from an average of 2.57 to 2.46, indicating a decrease in demand for U.S. Treasuries [3] - A rare "triple whammy" occurred in the U.S. market, with simultaneous declines in the stock market, bond prices, and the U.S. dollar index [3] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Global investors are accelerating their withdrawal from U.S. asset markets, particularly highlighting the critical role of Asian investors as major fund providers for U.S. deficits [4] - Many countries are quietly reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries as the attractiveness of dollar assets diminishes [4] Group 3: Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. government is projected to spend over $1.1 trillion on debt interest payments in the fiscal year 2024, a 30% increase from the previous fiscal year, marking a 15-year high [4] - Interest payments on U.S. debt are expected to account for approximately 3.93% of GDP, the highest level since 1998 [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Role - Deutsche Bank warns that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy interventions may not effectively address the current crisis, as foreign investors remain unwilling to finance U.S. fiscal deficits [5] - The bank suggests that potential solutions include significant modifications to current fiscal policies or a substantial depreciation of the U.S. dollar to attract foreign investors back [5]