2025贸易冲击对全球经济的影响研究报告：复苏风险持续攀升

Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is projected to decline from 3.2% to 2.7% in 2025 if new tariffs are implemented by the US [1][7] - The US economy is expected to slow down to 2.4% growth in 2025 from 2.8% in the previous year [1][7] - The Eurozone is forecasted to achieve only 1% growth in 2025, with Germany facing stagnation or a slight recession [1][7] Trade and Tariffs - New tariffs proposed by the US could significantly impact global trade, with potential tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports and 10-25% on imports from other countries [13][15] - The tariffs are expected to reduce global GDP by approximately 0.3% to 0.5% by 2026, with a notable decrease in global imports and exports by around 4% [18] - Germany, as an export-oriented economy, could see its GDP reduced by 0.4% in 2025 due to these trade restrictions [18] Monetary Policy - Central banks are facing challenges, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain interest rates around 4% while the European Central Bank plans further cuts [2][7] - Diverging financial policies are affecting exchange rates, leading to a stronger US dollar against the euro and yen [2][7] Investment Environment - High interest rates are suppressing investment levels, particularly in construction and equipment, despite a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] - Emerging markets, especially in Asia, are showing stronger industrial production growth compared to regions like Africa and the Middle East [2][3] Consumer Behavior - In the US, consumer confidence remains low despite rising wages, with spending not increasing as expected due to inflationary pressures [3][4] - In Europe, countries like France and Italy are facing fiscal challenges that could hinder economic growth [3][4] Structural Challenges - The global economy is experiencing a complex recovery, with governments needing to balance economic stimulus and debt control [4] - Political uncertainties, particularly in the US and Europe, are complicating long-term economic planning for businesses [3][4]