Ge Long Hui·2025-05-22 10:12Core Insights - The overall sensitivity of deposit scale to the reduction of deposit rates is low, indicating a strong willingness among individuals and businesses to allocate funds to bank deposits despite rate cuts [1][10] - The shift of deposits from the banking system to asset management products is primarily attributed to the manual interest compensation rectification in April 2024, which had a short-term impact but began to stabilize by July of the same year [1][10] - The proportion of personal and corporate deposits in the broad money supply has increased from approximately 48% to 52% by March 2024, reflecting a robust demand for bank deposits [1][10] Deposit Rate Adjustments - The reduction in deposit rates in July and October 2024 led to a noticeable decline in the year-on-year growth of large bank deposits, dropping from 5.8 trillion yuan to 5.2 trillion yuan and from 5.0 trillion yuan to 4.8 trillion yuan respectively [3] - The asset management product scale saw a rebound, with a shift from a year-on-year decrease of 629.5 billion yuan in August 2024 to a slight increase of 10 billion yuan, and a similar trend was observed in November 2024 [3] Deposit Growth Trends - Large banks' personal and corporate deposit year-on-year growth fluctuated, with notable increases and decreases observed in various months, indicating a dynamic response to interest rate changes [5] - The year-on-year growth of deposits in small and medium-sized banks also showed variability, with a peak growth of 81.56 billion yuan followed by a decrease of 25.29 billion yuan [5] Market Reactions - The bond market typically reacts in advance to expectations of deposit rate cuts, with rates generally declining before the official announcement, although the actual impact on market trends remains limited [10] - Following the last three deposit rate cuts, the yields on various bonds, including government bonds and credit bonds, generally trended downward over the subsequent trading days [10] Future Outlook - The current round of deposit rate cuts is expected to have a limited impact on the outflow of funds, with the probability of a return to a tight liquidity situation similar to the first quarter of the year being low [10] - The attractiveness of asset management products is anticipated to decrease due to ongoing adjustments in performance benchmarks, which may lead to a shift of funds back to deposits [10]