Ge Long Hui·2025-05-22 11:08Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Health reported a total revenue of 16.3 billion yuan for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, which exceeded the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 12.6% [1] - Adjusted net profit was 970 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, but fell short of the consensus estimate of 11.0% [1] - Future profit growth is expected to rely on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes [1] Revenue Breakdown - The self-operated business generated revenue of 14 billion yuan in 2HFY25, up 13.9% year-on-year, outperforming the consensus estimate of 9.1% [2] - The pharmaceutical e-commerce platform business revenue was 1.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 43.6%, but below the consensus estimate of 57.7% [2] - The number of SKUs in the self-operated business increased by 33.6% year-on-year to 1.23 million [2] Business Development and Strategy - The integration of advertising business has enhanced the service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and increased competitiveness in the pharmaceutical e-commerce sector [2] - Management indicated that the growth effect from Taobao's flash purchase exceeded expectations, suggesting a dual adaptation strategy for both remote and near-field models in the pharmaceutical health sector [2] Innovation and Future Guidance - The company reported stable growth in GMV for self-operated and platform businesses, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3] - Innovative businesses like "Code on Trust" and "Little Deer Traditional Chinese Medicine" have shown development, with "Code on Trust" covering a vast network of users and generating initial revenue [3] - The revenue growth target for FY26 is set at 5-10%, with adjusted net profit growth expected at 10-20% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY26-27 have been revised down by 8.8% and 8.4% to 2.3 billion yuan and 2.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a new FY28 forecast introduced at 2.9 billion yuan [3] - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x, reflecting a premium over the comparable company's average of 16.2x for 2026, considering the ongoing market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [3] - The target price is set at 5.43 HKD, up from a previous value of 4.4 HKD [3]