Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is gaining momentum, with government support and capital influx driving its development, but underlying risks and challenges remain [1][2][4][13] - The recent bankruptcy of Volocopter, a prominent eVTOL company, serves as a warning for the domestic low-altitude industry, highlighting potential pitfalls despite the current hype [3][4] Government and Policy Support - The low-altitude economy was included in the government work report last year, leading to the establishment of low-altitude companies by local state-owned enterprises [1] - As of November 2024, 45 cities in China have initiated low-altitude economic policy planning, with 744 certified general aviation companies and approximately 18,000 operational enterprises [4] Market Dynamics and Investment - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 2 trillion yuan by 2030 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China [4] - Significant capital investment is flowing into the sector, creating numerous unicorn companies, but some enterprises rely heavily on concept hype rather than mature technology [4][8] Technological Challenges - eVTOLs face limitations due to low battery energy density, with most prototypes achieving only 200-250 Wh/kg, restricting flight range and payload capacity [5][6] - The production of high-efficiency motors for eVTOLs is costly and complex, leading to delays in delivery and increased costs [6] Infrastructure and Regulatory Issues - China's low-altitude airspace management system is still underdeveloped, lacking unified standards and clear flight rules, which complicates the approval process for eVTOL operations [6][7] - The number of general aviation airports in China is insufficient, with fewer than 300, which limits the operational capacity for low-altitude aircraft [6][7] Application Scenarios - The low-altitude economy encompasses various applications, including logistics, agriculture, and emergency rescue, with significant growth potential in these areas [8][11] - The commercial drone industry is expected to reach a market value of $30 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.6% from 2025 to 2030 [8] Future Outlook - The low-altitude economy has the potential for substantial growth, particularly in tourism and emergency services, but requires significant infrastructure investment and regulatory improvements [12][13] - The integration of advanced technologies like Beidou and 5G for air traffic management is crucial for the safe operation of eVTOLs and other low-altitude vehicles [13]
风口之下，低空经济是新蓝海还是泡沫？
3 6 Ke·2025-05-22 11:54