摩根大通经济学家：房地产会在2026年趋稳，最快在今年

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2025, but a nationwide recovery is unlikely, with only localized stabilization anticipated [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Signs of stabilization are emerging in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities face prolonged adjustment periods due to high inventory and insufficient demand [3]. - New home sales and construction indicators are projected to decline year-on-year in 2025, but are expected to bottom out and stabilize in 2026 [3]. - The new home market's policy adjustments are accelerating the transaction cycle of second-hand homes, positively impacting second-hand home prices [3]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Multiple institutions, including Morgan Stanley, agree that the real estate market may stabilize next year, but short-term pressures remain significant [5]. - The government aims to consolidate the stability of the real estate market, indicating that while some recovery has been achieved, further efforts are needed for comprehensive recovery [5]. Group 3: Regional Insights - In Beijing, from January to April, new residential sales area reached 3.212 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, with a slight month-on-month price increase of 0.1% in April [7]. - The market in Beijing is showing signs of "structural stabilization," supported by improving supply-demand dynamics, but a full recovery is still not in sight [7]. - Future policies may include easing restrictions in high-demand areas, which could help absorb external demand and sustain market recovery [7].