Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that some European Central Bank (ECB) officials believe the interest rate cut in April effectively brought forward the anticipated rate cut originally scheduled for June [1][2][3] - The ECB's meeting minutes indicate that recent events have convinced officials that cutting rates now provides a safeguard against negative outcomes and avoids adding uncertainty during periods of market volatility [1][3] - The market currently estimates a 90% probability of a rate cut next month, with expectations for another cut later this year, bringing the ECB's deposit rate down to 1.75%, which aligns with the lower bound of the neutral interest rate range [1][3][4] Group 2 - ECB officials view eurozone inflation as "close to its end," although trade tensions may suppress prices in the short term [4][5] - The minutes from the meeting express increased confidence among committee members that inflation will return to target in the medium term, suggesting that deflationary forces may dominate in the short term [5] - Some decision-makers believe that tariffs could be a long-term source of inflation, with the potential for trade shocks to trigger inflation beyond the short term due to the disruptive effects on global value chains [5]
欧洲央行:四月降息实为“六月提前行动”,通胀接近目标但关税隐忧仍在
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-05-22 13:45