为什么担心信用评级下调没有被市场过于担心？

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is the downgrade of the US credit rating, which has led to a decline in US stock index futures and a rise in 30-year Treasury yields testing 5% and 10-year yields surpassing 4.5% [1] - There is a debate on whether debt holders will still demand at least a AAA rating for their holdings, with many commentators suggesting that such standards can be adjusted [2] - The primary reason for the downgrade is identified as ongoing fiscal imbalances, with expectations that higher interest rates will exert downward pressure on government spending [4][7] Group 2 - It is noted that Moody's downgrade is seen as lagging behind other rating agencies, which had already downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA years ago [5] - Concerns are raised about the market's defensive positioning, with institutional long positions in bonds and US Treasury futures, amidst a backdrop of expanding structural deficits [7] - The potential impact of the downgrade on the political process regarding raising the debt ceiling is emphasized, as the Treasury is currently using "extraordinary measures" to continue paying bills without exceeding the $36.1 trillion debt limit [7][8] Group 3 - Historical responses of the bond market to previous rating downgrades in 2011 and 2023 are discussed, indicating inconsistent outcomes, with 2011 seeing a rebound and 2023 experiencing a sell-off [8][10] - The trend in bond prices before the downgrades continued post-event, with the current fiscal policies leaning towards expansion potentially leading to a sustained decline in Treasury prices [13]