张尧浠：特朗普税改法案险过、金价短线回撤仍有反弹

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the passage of Trump's tax reform in the House, which has reduced risk aversion and strengthened the dollar, leading to downward pressure on gold prices. However, the overall outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and potential economic concerns stemming from increased U.S. debt [3][5][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On May 22, gold prices opened at $3315.12 per ounce, peaked at $3345.08, and then fell to a low of $3279.40, closing at $3294.53, marking a daily decline of $20.59 or 0.62% [1][3]. - The market is currently experiencing a lack of strong bearish pressure, suggesting that gold may continue to perform well in the short term, with a focus on the $3500 level as a potential resistance point [1][5]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - The successful passage of Trump's tax reform is expected to increase U.S. government debt by $3 trillion to $5 trillion, raising concerns about the fiscal health of the U.S. and potentially weakening the dollar [7][8]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions remain, with the potential for renewed concerns as the 90-day tariff pause approaches its end without a new agreement, which could further support gold prices [7][8]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong bullish trend for gold, with prices remaining above the May moving average and showing potential for further gains [10][12]. - Weekly charts also reflect a rebound, with gold prices returning above the 5-week moving average, suggesting a bullish momentum that could target $3400 and $3500 [12][14]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market sentiment is leaning towards a bullish outlook for gold, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [8][10]. - The potential for a shift in monetary policy, depending on trade developments, could further influence gold prices, with expectations of interest rate cuts if tariffs are reduced [8][10].