邓正红能源软实力：欧佩克联盟讨论增产引发市场对全球供应超过需求增长的担忧

Group 1 - OPEC is discussing a potential production increase of 410,000 barrels per day in July, which raises concerns about global supply exceeding demand growth [1][3] - As of May 22, international oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $61.20 per barrel, down 0.60%, and Brent crude at $64.44 per barrel, down 0.72% [1] - The unexpected increase in U.S. crude and fuel inventories has put downward pressure on oil prices, potentially leading to more U.S. crude exports to Europe and Asia [1] Group 2 - The G7 proposed lowering the price cap on Russian oil to $50 per barrel, but the U.S. remains unconvinced, despite acknowledging that current oil prices are harming Russia [2][4] - The ongoing discussions reflect a shift in the energy order, with OPEC facing challenges in maintaining its market influence due to internal governance issues and external geopolitical pressures [2][3] Group 3 - OPEC's decision to increase production highlights its internal governance failures, as the alliance struggles to maintain price stability while facing a decline in its strategic credibility [3] - The mismatch between supply and demand, exacerbated by EIA's unexpected inventory increase, indicates a static analysis flaw in OPEC's understanding of global energy demand [3] - The U.S. is leveraging policy tools and financial mechanisms to reshape energy rules, further diluting OPEC's influence on global energy pricing [3][4]