大摩：忘掉“卖出美国”交易！美股、美债明年将主宰全球市场

Group 1 - The recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's has led to a cooling of US Treasury auctions and increased concerns about the Trump administration's tax cuts exacerbating the budget deficit, accelerating the "sell America" trade [1] - Despite the recent sell-off of US assets, Morgan Stanley's strategist team expects a rebound in US assets next year, predicting that they will outperform global peers, citing the lack of better alternatives for investors [1] - Morgan Stanley strategists forecast that the S&P 500 index will reach 6,500 points by Q2 2026, representing a 10% increase from current levels, driven by potential Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley strategists believe that the recent rise in 10-year Treasury yields is a temporary trend, expecting yields to remain range-bound until Q4, when investors will start to price in rate cuts for 2026 [2] - The strategists do not view the current selling of US assets as a permanent retreat, noting that global equity funds have not withdrawn from the US in the past quarter, and foreign holdings of US dollar bonds are at an all-time high [2]