Core Viewpoint - The wood market is experiencing stability in spot prices while futures are fluctuating, with a notable decrease in import volumes and ongoing challenges in the market due to weak demand and increased port inventories [1] Price Trends - The spot price of 3.9m A-grade radiata pine logs in Rizhao, Shandong is 750 RMB/m³, unchanged from yesterday but down 10 RMB/m³ from last week [1] - The spot price of 4m A-grade radiata pine logs in Taicang, Jiangsu is 770 RMB/m³, down 10 RMB/m³ from yesterday and also down 10 RMB/m³ from last week [1] Import Volumes - In April 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs are approximately 2.1846 million cubic meters, a month-on-month decrease of 5.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.09% [1] - From January to April 2025, total imports of softwood logs are about 7.9688 million cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.81% [1] Shipping and Port Activity - From May 19 to May 25, 2025, 18 vessels carrying softwood logs are expected to arrive at 18 ports, an increase of 5 vessels week-on-week, with a total arrival volume of approximately 421,000 cubic meters, up 14.47% from last week [1] - In Shandong, 6 vessels are expected, with an arrival volume of about 230,000 cubic meters, accounting for 55% of the total and a week-on-week increase of 135% [1] - In Jiangsu, 13 vessels are expected, with an arrival volume of about 191,000 cubic meters, accounting for 45% of the total and a week-on-week increase of 36% [1] Material Types - For New Zealand timber, 11 vessels are expected with an arrival volume of approximately 389,000 cubic meters, accounting for 92% of the total and a week-on-week increase of 72% [1] - For Japanese timber, 8 vessels are expected with an arrival volume of about 32,000 cubic meters, accounting for 8% of the total and a week-on-week increase of 85% [1] Market Outlook - The main contract closed at 777.5 RMB/m³, down 2.5 RMB/m³ from the previous day, indicating a weak market sentiment [1] - Downstream processing plants are showing a need for inventory purchases, and with recent declines in spot prices, there is a short-term improvement in inventory turnover [1] - The overall expectation is for spot prices to stabilize, but the terminal market remains sluggish, with ongoing challenges from weakened real estate demand and increased port inventories [1] Strategy Recommendations - The overall sentiment in the spot market is stable but slightly weak, suggesting a cautious approach [1] - Short-term futures are experiencing significant declines, with risks related to basis inversion and delivery size discrepancies, indicating potential for valuation adjustments [1] - Aggressive investors may consider positioning for long positions based on recent lows, while options strategies should remain observational [1]
辐射松原木：行情波动，进口量有变化
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-23 06:42