小鹏汽车(9868.HK)：2025Q1亏损大幅收窄AI智能生态加速

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with significant revenue growth and improving operational metrics, indicating a positive outlook for future sales and profitability [1][2][3][4] Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.8% [1] - The automotive business generated 14.37 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 159.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.1%, primarily driven by increased delivery volumes [1][2] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle decreased from 160,300 yuan in Q4 2024 to 152,900 yuan in Q1 2025 [1] Profitability Metrics - The automotive business reported a gross profit of 1.51 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 10.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0 percentage points [2] - Total gross profit for Q1 2025 was 2.46 billion yuan, with an overall gross margin of 15.6%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Expense Management - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 1.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.7% [2] - Selling and administrative expenses were 1.95 billion yuan, up 40.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased commissions from franchise stores [2] Cash Position - As of Q1 2025, the company had a total of 45.28 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, indicating a strong liquidity position [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales to range between 102,000 and 108,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5% [3] - Projected revenue for this sales volume is estimated to be between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 115.7% to 130.5% [3] Product Development - The company plans to launch several new models, including the XPeng MONAM03 Max and the next-generation P7, which are expected to enhance product competitiveness and stimulate sales growth [3][4] - The deployment of the Turing chip is set to begin in Q2 2025, with applications extending beyond the automotive sector into robotics, aiming for mass production of humanoid robots by 2026 [4] Investment Perspective - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 94.58 billion yuan in 2025 to 170.08 billion yuan in 2027, with projected net profits improving from a loss of 6.6 billion yuan in 2025 to a profit of 75.4 billion yuan in 2027 [4]