XPENG INC.(9868.HK)：1Q25 BOTTOM LINE BEAT ON NON-RECURRING ITEMS; INTENSIVE NEW LAUNCHES TO DRIVE ROBUST GROWTH AHEAD WITH PROFITABILITY ON TRACK

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in 1Q25 but managed to narrow its non-GAAP net loss to a record low due to improved gross margins and operational efficiency, alongside non-recurring income [1][5]. Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was largely in line with expectations, with vehicle sales dipping 2.1% QoQ to RMB14.4 billion, while average selling price (ASP) decreased by 4.7% to RMB153,000 due to a weakening sales mix [3]. - Gross margin improved from 10.0% in 4Q24 to 10.5% in 1Q25, despite temporary disruptions from inventory provisions and model switch losses [4]. - Non-GAAP net loss narrowed to RMB426 million, aided by a moderate optimization of the OPEX ratio to 24.8% and contributions from non-recurring items totaling RMB500 million [5]. Cash Flow and Position - The company reported strong free cash flow exceeding RMB3 billion in 1Q25, increasing net cash to RMB33.3 billion, which supports future growth initiatives [2][6]. Delivery Guidance and Future Outlook - The delivery guidance for 2Q25 is lower than previous estimates, with expected sales volume between 102,000 and 108,000 units, attributed to weaker demand during the model switch phase [7]. - Anticipated strong sales growth in 2H25 is expected from the launch of several new flagship models, including G7 and next-gen P7, which are crucial for brand enhancement [2][10]. Growth Strategies - The company aims to expand its growth beyond the AI vehicle business, targeting overseas markets and non-vehicle sectors, including humanoid robots, with plans for mass production starting in 2026 [8][9]. - The management expressed confidence in achieving a high-teens blended gross margin by 4Q25, supported by an optimized product portfolio and cost reduction efforts [4][12]. Valuation and Market Position - The company maintained its sales volume forecast for 2025-26 at 470,000 and 620,000 units, respectively, while adjusting non-GAAP net income forecasts to reflect improved gross margin expectations [9]. - Despite recent stock performance lagging behind competitors, the company remains optimistic about restoring sales momentum and profitability in the latter half of 2025 [10][11].