Longi(SH:601012) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-23 10:27Core Viewpoint - The industry is facing a significant mismatch in supply and demand, leading to a sharp decline in prices across the supply chain, which will pressure the company's profitability in 2024 and Q1 2025. However, the company's HPBC 2.0 product saw a notable increase in shipments in Q1, with 4.32 GW shipped, accounting for 25% of total shipments. The company plans to reach a production capacity of 50 GW for HPBC 2.0 by the end of the year, with expectations for further shipment growth in 2026. [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 82.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -8.618 billion yuan, down 180.15% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was -8.747 billion yuan, also down 180.74% year-on-year. In Q4, the single-quarter revenue was 23.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.23% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.57%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.113 billion yuan. [2] Industry Challenges - The price decline in the supply chain has significantly pressured the company's gross margin in 2024. The solar industry is affected by supply-demand imbalances, leading to substantial price drops in components and silicon wafers. The company's revenue from components and battery business was 66.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.13%, with a gross margin of 6.27%, down 12.11 percentage points. The silicon wafer and rod business generated revenue of 8.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.53%, with a gross margin of -14.31%, down 30.19 percentage points. [3] Asset Impairment - The company recorded an asset impairment loss of 8.7 billion yuan in 2024, with 2.143 billion yuan in Q4 primarily related to fixed assets. The total impairment included 6.128 billion yuan for inventory write-downs and contract performance cost impairments due to price declines in the supply chain. In Q1 2025, the company's losses narrowed quarter-on-quarter due to reduced asset impairments and cost control, but the gross margin further declined to -4.18% due to rising upstream silicon prices and falling component prices. [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating its transition to BC technology, with Q1 battery component shipments reaching 16.93 GW, including 4.32 GW of BC components, accounting for 25.5% of total shipments. The production efficiency of HPBC 2.0 reached 24.8%, with a target for BC component shipments to exceed 25% for the year. The company has established a 5 GW joint venture factory in the U.S. to mitigate risks associated with market barriers, aiming for strong profitability in the high-price U.S. market. [5] Financial Stability - The company maintains a strong cash position and a low debt-to-asset ratio, indicating resilience during the industry's downturn. As of the end of Q1, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 51.483 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 59.8%, significantly lower than other leading companies. The inventory turnover days decreased by 12 days year-on-year to 98 days, indicating initial success in inventory reduction. [5] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 80.832 billion yuan, 93.449 billion yuan, and 105.551 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of -2.768 billion yuan, 1.075 billion yuan, and 3.834 billion yuan. [6]