山西汾酒(600809)：经营韧性较强 增长势能持续

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.523 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.72%, and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, which is a 6.15% increase year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories was 26.532 billion yuan and 9.342 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40% [1] - Revenue from the domestic market reached 13.500 billion yuan, while the revenue from the external market was 22.374 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 11.72% and 13.81% respectively [1] - The number of distributors increased significantly, with 835 in the domestic market and 3,718 in the external market, net additions of 15 and 598 respectively compared to the end of 2023 [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 76.20%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix improvements [2] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance were 10.35%, 4.02%, 0.41%, and -0.03% respectively, with slight increases year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 34.00%, up 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [2] Growth Potential and Market Strategy - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience with double-digit growth in revenue and net profit in 2024, and positive growth in Q1 2025, reflecting strong brand equity and growth momentum [3] - The product strategy focuses on enhancing the "Qinghua" series, strengthening mid-tier products, and maintaining the market position of "Guangping" liquor [3] - The company is expanding its market presence, particularly in southern regions, by targeting county-level markets and focusing on core distributors to increase terminal numbers [3] Investment Outlook - Based on the operational performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 13.63 billion yuan, 15.11 billion yuan, and 16.67 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.4%, 10.8%, and 10.4% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]