环球市场动态 文 本 分 析 视 角 下 的 美 国 政 企 关 税 博 弈 与 投 资 影 响 股 票 A 股周三情绪回暖，沪指创业板成 功上涨；港股继续下跌，科技股整 体偏弱；欧洲股市小幅走低，市场 在明显回调后处于观望；美股在科 技股带动下反弹，英伟达 (NVDA US) 盘后公布业绩超预期带动盘 后继续上涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 美国官方数据显示成品油库存增 加，特朗普政府再度推动俄乌停战， 周三国际油价下跌超 2%；美联储 降息预期降温，美元指数升穿 100 水平；日元领跌 G-10 货币。国际 金价企稳。 固 定 收 益 美国国债小幅下跌，因美股回升, 加上美联储会议纪要显示多数人认 为 12 月适合维持利率不变。周四 将发布 9 月非农数据。亚洲债市相 对平衡，市场情绪有所改善。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 11 月 20 日 ▪ 关税对美国宏观经济的影响需要考虑企业微观行为与传导机制，我们通过自然语言处理技术及 DeepSeek 工 具，对美国上市企业财报与电话会文本进行辅助分析，试图寻找关税影响 ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，白酒业九大企业大单品全国市场的终端零售均价周四温和回 落。昨日名酒价格全线普涨。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日售价将达9254元，较昨日下跌7元。 贵州茅台飞天和精品酒的价格环比均上涨1元/瓶。今日价格涨幅领先的是国窖1573，较昨日上涨5元/瓶，为连 续第二天上涨。贵州茅台飞天和精品之外，洋河梦之蓝M6+的价格也上涨1元/瓶，实现强劲的六连阳。此前有 酒业分析人士指出，某款名酒价格如果连续上涨或与双十一后的短时缺货有关。周四跌幅较重的是五粮液普五 八代和古井贡古20，两者均环比下跌5元/瓶。青花郎的价格下跌3元/瓶，此前连续两天上扬的涨势告终。青花 汾20和习酒君品的价格均回落1元/瓶，昨日这两款酒的价格均强势领涨。 价格说明 1、酒价内参系新浪财经推出的国内第一款关于中国知名白酒企业 大单品的市场终端价表单。每日上午9点前后公布一次。 2、本表单的设立旨在为社会各界提供一份关于中国知名白酒市场 价格的客观、真实、科学、全程可追溯数据,更好地促进白酒市 场、行业和厂商的健康可持续发展。 3、首期表单的入选酒品为中国白酒业T9(茅台、五粮液、汾酒、 泸州 ...

| 成交 | 成交金 | 成交价 | 相对当 日 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 量 | 额 | 格 | 收盘折 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | （万 股） | （万 元） | （元） | 溢价 | | | | | | | （%） | | | | 24.60 | 4515.82 | 183.57 | -6.00 | 机构专用 | 国泰海通证券股份有限公司深圳滨 | | | | | | | 河大道证券营业部 | | 20.40 | 3744.83 | 183.57 | -6.00 | 机构专用 | 国泰海通证券股份有限公司深圳滨 | | | | | | | 河大道证券营业部 | | 11.10 | 2037.63 | 183.57 | -6.00 | 中信建投证券股份有限公司总部 | 国泰海通证券股份有限公司深圳滨 | | | | | | | 河大道证券营业部 | | 10.25 | 1881.59 | 183.57 | -6.00 | 中国银河证券股份有限公司兰州东 | 国泰海通证券股份有限公司深圳滨 | | | | | | 岗西路证券营业部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a phase of bottoming out, which aligns with market expectations and is seen as a foundation for future recovery [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03 points, down 0.46% on November 17, while the white liquor sector closed at 2351.84 points, up 0.21% [1] - The performance of individual white liquor stocks varied, with Kweichow Moutai closing at 1471.00 CNY per share, up 0.99%, and Wuliangye closing at 120.15 CNY per share, down 0.05% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 198.99 CNY per share, up 1.23%, while Luzhou Laojiao closed at 140.00 CNY per share, up 0.27% [1] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 68.46 CNY per share, down 2.03% [1] Company Summary - Dongwu Securities released a report indicating that the white liquor industry is accelerating its bottoming process, which is expected by the market [1] - The current stage of the white liquor market is beneficial for alleviating previous overly pessimistic sentiments, laying the groundwork for future recovery [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [3][8]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry experienced a slight revenue increase of 0.17% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, but the net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 4.58% [3][15]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in both revenue and profit, with revenues dropping by 4.75% year-on-year and net profits decreasing by 14.61% [3][15]. - The report highlights that the macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to lead to a recovery in performance and valuation for the food and beverage sector [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector's overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 8309.16 billion, with a net profit of CNY 1711.64 billion [3][15]. - The third quarter alone generated revenue of CNY 2500.62 billion, with a net profit of CNY 434.96 billion [3][15]. 2. Subsector Performance 2.1 Baijiu (Chinese liquor) - The baijiu sector faced significant pressure, with revenues and net profits declining in the third quarter of 2025 [24]. - Major brands like Moutai and Fenjiu performed relatively well despite the overall downturn [24]. - The report notes a 20%-30% decline in sales during traditional festive periods, with regional variations in performance [24]. 2.2 Beer - The beer sector maintained steady demand, achieving a revenue of CNY 620.52 billion in the first three quarters, up 2.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 94.84 billion, up 11.82% [29]. - The third quarter saw revenues of CNY 203.20 billion, with a net profit increase of 11.30% [29]. 2.3 Snacks - The snack sector showed positive growth, with revenues and net profits increasing in the third quarter [3][29]. 2.4 Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector experienced a strong performance, particularly in the third quarter, with leading companies showing significant growth [3][29]. 2.5 Dairy Products - The dairy sector continued to face demand challenges, but there were signs of marginal improvement as raw milk prices stabilized [4][29]. 2.6 Condiments - The condiment sector is undergoing intense competition, but leading companies are outperforming the overall market [4][29]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient companies with strong growth potential, such as Dongpeng Beverage, Yili, and Moutai, among others [8][24].

今日(11月19日)A股共48只个股发生大宗交易，总成交18.67亿元，其中联影医疗、山西汾酒、博拓生物 成交额居前，成交额依次为9.87亿元、1.55亿元、1.15亿元。 机构专用席位卖出：万达信息(705万元)。 成交价方面，共3只股票平价成交，1只股票溢价成交，44只股票折价成交；ST东尼溢价成交，溢价率 为0.96%；一诺威、颖泰生物、仟源医药折价率居前，折价率依次为29.76%、29.26%、17.32%。 机构专用席位买入额排名：山西汾酒(9178.5万元)、博拓生物(8635.02万元)、中际旭创(3310.37万元)、 三棵树(2937.07万元)、三丰智能(2929.5万元)、微芯生物(1255.5万元)、赛伍技术(1002.2万元)、四川双 马(940.5万元)、宏远股份(890.4万元)、咸亨国际(752.88万元)、泰永长征(726.98万元)、福龙马(455.22万 元)、德明利(307.88万元)、西陇科学(229.5万元)。 ...

Investment Highlights - The report indicates a clear turning point for the food and beverage industry following accelerated clearance, with expectations for leading sectors to initiate recovery [2][7] - The overall revenue for the food and beverage sector showed a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 4.6% in the first three quarters of 2025 [18][20] - In Q3 2025, the sector experienced a significant decline, with revenues and net profits dropping by 4.9% and 14.6% respectively [18][20] Sector Review 1. Overall Review - The food and beverage sector faced continuous pressure and adjustments, with traditional consumption accelerating clearance while new consumption trends continued to grow [18][20] - The white liquor segment saw a revenue decline of 18.4% and a net profit decline of 22.2% in Q3 2025, indicating significant pressure on the sector [20][22] - In contrast, sectors like snacks and beverages maintained double-digit growth due to product and channel innovations [20][21] 2. White Liquor - The white liquor industry is undergoing accelerated clearance, with varying rhythms among companies. The demand has weakened, leading to noticeable declines in revenue and net profit for most companies [22][25] - High-end liquor maintained some growth, with Moutai achieving a revenue increase of 0.3% in Q3 2025, while other brands like Wuliangye saw declines exceeding 50% [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand balance and pricing as key indicators for the industry's recovery [22][23] 3. Low-Alcohol Beverages and Drinks - The beer segment showed stable performance with a revenue increase of 2.0% and a net profit increase of 11.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [21][22] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for low-alcohol beverages and drinks, driven by health trends and product innovation [22][23] 4. Consumer Goods - The dairy sector is gradually stabilizing, with upstream supply clearing and downstream processing demand increasing, leading to a potential balance in the raw milk cycle [31][33] - The snack sector, particularly the konjac and oat categories, is expected to maintain high growth rates, supported by the expansion of new retail channels [31][36] - The report notes that the overall demand for dining remains weak, but specific segments like Western-style condiments and frozen baking show structural opportunities [31][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are early in their clearance processes and have strong brand momentum, such as Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [11][12] - For low-alcohol beverages, attention is drawn to leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Tsingtao Brewery, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [11][12] - In the consumer goods sector, companies with strong performance and cost advantages, such as Yili and Modern Dairy, are recommended for investment [11][12]

11月14日，由山西汾酒联合新华社品牌工作办公室、半月谈杂志社共同组织的"汾酒第二阶段高质量发 展战略研讨会"在山西太原成功举办。本次研讨会以"行稳致远，质领未来"为主题，汇聚政企学研多方 智慧，为更好实现"全要素、高质量、又好又快扎根中国酒业第一方阵"的阶段目标建言献策。 品牌营销专家、《超级增长》作者魏家东在会上发表主旨演讲，与大家分享汾酒在新时代的超级增长路 径。他指出，在品牌逻辑迭代的当下，汾酒要实现超级增长突破，要从用户出发，用"用户+传播+渠 道"的组合拳，打通增长全链路。 (品牌营销专家、《超级增长》作者魏家东发言) 为此需推进年轻化破圈与出海赋能两大关键举措。年轻化的关键是品牌调性贴合潮流，而非低价或局限 低龄群体，如推出融入动漫IP的限量版青花汾酒，用潮流设计贴近年轻群体。汽车行业的趋势已经直观 反映了消费需求与偏好的深刻变化。同时在白酒出海时标注国际品鉴标准与营养成分，让大家去了解中 国白酒，助力海外用户快速认可。最终抢占用户心智，让汾酒成为白酒消费的首选。 创场景：把汾酒嵌入生活时刻 消费场景的深度绑定，能让产品自然走进用户。魏家东认为，从场景上来讲就是要将产品嵌入用户的生 活时刻。场景 ...

两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为9.55亿元，近5日增加1991.88万元，增幅为2.13%。（数据宝） 11月18日山西汾酒大宗交易一览 （原标题：山西汾酒现3笔大宗交易 总成交金额1.86亿元） 山西汾酒11月18日大宗交易平台共发生3笔成交，合计成交量100.60万股，成交金额1.86亿元。成交价格 均为185.10元，相对今日收盘价折价6.00%。从参与大宗交易营业部来看，机构专用席位共出现在1笔成 交的买方或卖方营业部中，合计成交金额为1.67亿元，净买入1.67亿元。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生169笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为26.60亿元。 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，山西汾酒今日收盘价为196.91元，下跌1.05%，日换手率为0.45%，成交额 为10.80亿元，全天主力资金净流出1.63亿元，近5日该股累计下跌1.33%，近5日资金合计净流出2.72亿 元。 | 成交 | 成交金 | | 相对当 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 量 | 额 | 成交价 格 | 日 收盘折 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | （万 | （万 ...

中国酒类流通协会会长秦书尧在会上围绕对酒业调整的认识、对酒业趋势的研判、对汾酒高质量发展的 思考三个方面发表了主旨演讲。他指出，白酒行业未来发展将趋于三个"平衡"，汾酒第二阶段的高质量 发展应该以品牌领先战略为根本，从文化活化、文化出海两个方面寻求突破。 11月14日，由山西汾酒、新华社品牌工作办公室、半月谈杂志社主办的汾酒第二阶段高质量发展战略研 讨会在山西太原举办。本次研讨会以"行稳致远，质领未来"为主题，汇聚政企学研多方智慧，致力于为 汾酒找准政策共振点、夯实战略执行力，为更好实现"全要素、高质量、又好又快扎根中国酒业第一方 阵"的阶段目标建言献策。 (中国酒类流通协会会长秦书尧) 三是稳健与发展的平衡。在深度调整期，如何处理"稳健经营"与"发展进取"的关系，选择更高效、更有 力的市场撬动支点，是对酒业智慧和能力的重大考验。 以品牌领先战略为根本，从文化活化与出海寻突破 "汾酒的文化领先战略，是启动第二轮竞争的最核心的问题，"秦书尧强调，"'中国酒魂'解决了汾酒是什 么的问题，但还没有更大的扩展。" "我们要思考，汾酒是什么?汾酒品牌不同于其他酒企的特质是什么?汾酒品牌最大的消费认知是什 么?"秦书尧指 ...