证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 03 月 09 日 首推餐饮链改善，白酒重回底部买点 食品饮料行业周报暨春季策略会反馈 消费品/食品饮料 本周《政府工作报告》指出，26 年将深入实施提振消费专项行动，商务部也表 示将出台商品消费扩容升级等更多增量政策，消费板块有望迎来投资机会。首 推顺周期餐饮链改善（调味品、啤酒）。大众品板块，继续首推餐饮链改善 （调味品、啤酒、乳制品等）；白酒板块，节后飞天茅台批价阶段性跌破 1600 元、主因国资平台放量及节后到货冲击市场情绪，但实际经销商库存极低（半 个月以内）、非标库存明显去化，叠加 i 茅台持续放量带动需求扩容，以及小 商成本线约 1400 元形成支撑，预计全年批价将在 1600 元上下波动，难以继续 下行。白酒产业经历多年调整后，2026 年已进入供需价格企稳年，当前板块股 价跌回春节前悲观预期阶段，具备底部配置价值。一季报预期逐步清晰后情绪 性的压制因素有望解除。 ❑ 核心公司跟踪：飞天批价短期波动，百润 26 年整体预期积极。 舍得酒业：春季旺季动销表现良好，26 年营收目标正增长。公司腊月初 一-正月初七动销双位数增长，千元价格带仍有一定压力、 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 食品饮料周报：多赛道风起，精选强α个股 ——食饮行业周报（2026 年 3 月第 1 期） 投资要点 ❑ 市场表现复盘 本周（3 月 2 日-3 月 6 日，下同），食品饮料板块涨跌幅为-2.48%，上证综 指涨跌幅为-0.93%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为-1.07%，具体来看，肉制品 +1.10%、啤酒+0.91%、乳品+0.07%、调味发酵品-0.25%、软饮料-1.47%、 其他酒类-2.16%、烘焙食品-3.13%、白酒-3.32%、预加工食品-3.76%、零食- 3.88%、保健品-4.01%。 ❑ 周观点更新 白酒：淡季高端酒批价整体稳定，关注潜在催化。本周沪深 300/食饮/白酒 板块涨跌幅-1.07%/-2.48%/-3.32%，其中山西汾酒/五粮液/洋河股份跌幅居后 （-0.3%/-1.6%/-2.8%)。本周白酒板块延续较弱表现，或主因淡季下飞天批价 因供给节奏问题导致小幅波动，需求端表现整体平稳。3 月中下旬即将迎来 糖酒会，后续将关注糖酒会情绪/房地产预期/大众高端消费等催化。 大众品：餐供/零食/功能饮料表现居前，继续看好强α标的。肉制品/ ...

《节后需求稳健格局优化，健康功能 饮品长期向好—行业周报》-2026.3.1 《春节动销趋势向好，聚焦龙头布局 景气赛道—行业周报》-2026.2.23 《包装水行业发展稳健，头部分化孕 育 结 构 性 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.11 两会政策红利释放，行业复苏确定性提升 ——行业周报 食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：两会双轮政策加持，板块迎来布局窗口 3 月 2 日-3 月 6 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 2.5%，一级子行业排名第 12，跑输沪深 300 约 1.4pct，子行业中肉制品（+1.1%）、啤酒（+0.9%）、乳品（+0.1%）表现相对领 先。本周两会开启，2026 ...

食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《节后需求稳健格局优化，健康功能 饮品长期向好—行业周报》-2026.3.1 《春节动销趋势向好，聚焦龙头布局 景气赛道—行业周报》-2026.2.23 《包装水行业发展稳健，头部分化孕 育 结 构 性 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.11 两会政策红利释放，行业复苏确定性提升 ——行业周报 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：两会双轮政策加持，板块迎来布局窗口 3 月 2 日-3 月 6 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 2.5%，一级子行业排名第 12，跑输沪深 300 约 1.4pct，子行业中肉制品（+1.1%）、啤酒（+0.9%）、乳品（+0.1%）表现相对领 先。本周两会开启，2026 年政府工作报告将扩大内需、提振消费置于年度工作 首要位置，明确实施提振消费专项行动，以居民增收、社保完善、财政金融协同、 ...

食品饮料行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 食品饮料：论原料、涨价与上游 风险提示：食品安全、产业政策调整、管理层更替、原料价格上行不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 08 日 食品饮料行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：先上游，再下游。 上游主线一：农产品加工。1）泛糖加工：推荐中粮糖业(600737，买入)、相关标的冠农 股份(600251，未评级)；2）果汁加工：相关标的安德利(605198，未评级)、安德利果汁 (02218，未评级)；3）牧业：推荐优然牧业(09858，买入)、相关标的现代牧业(01117， 未评级)； 上游主线二：食品原料供应商。生物提取：相关标的华宝国际(00336，未评级)、晨光生 物(300138，未评级)、阜丰集团(00546，未评级)；2）功能糖：相关标的华康股份 (605077，未评级)、保龄宝(002286，未评级)、百龙创园(605016，未评级)、三元生物 (301206，未评级)； 下游主线：1）白酒，推荐山西汾酒(600809，买入)、贵州茅台(600519，买入)、今世缘 (603369，买入)、舍 ...

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 07 日 相关研究 《节后茅台批价保持坚挺 继续看好白酒及 餐饮链头部标的——食品饮料行业周报 20260223-20260227》 2026/03/01 《25Q4 白酒报表出清 食品分化改善—— 食品饮料 2025 年报业绩前瞻》 2026/02/09 《春节茅台旺销验证观点 重申白酒进入战 略布局期——食品饮料行业周报 20260202-20260206》 2026/02/08 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 批价维持合理 估值吸引力提升 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20260302-20260306 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：食品安全问题，经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信 ...

2026 元夕后白酒进销存系列调研 20260305 摘要 白酒回款进度普遍滞后，茅台回款与到货接近，五粮液回款约 40%，国 窖、洋河、酒鬼、汾酒回款仅 20%-30%，多数品牌节奏慢于 2025 年 同期。 动销分化明显，茅台普飞中个位数增长，五粮液 1-2 月增 3%-4%，而 国窖下滑近 25%，洋河、水井坊下滑约 15%，汾酒青花系列下滑约 10%。 库存水平处于高位，国窖、洋河、汾酒、水井坊、酒鬼等品牌渠道库存 普遍在 2-3 个月，茅台普飞约 10 天，五粮液普五约 25 天，整体去库压 力仍存。 批价表现承压，普飞全年预期区间 1,450-1,650 元，普五维持在 780 元上方，国窖 850 元附近，水井坊 8 号因库存积压批价下移至 267 元。 徽酒市场古井、迎驾回款约 45%，口子窖不足 30%；古井动销下滑 10%-15%，迎驾持平，口子窖下滑近 40%，区域竞争加剧且利润空间 收缩。 2026 年合同目标务实，五粮液按去年实际量 1.1 倍签订，洋河持平， 口子窖下调超 20%，茅台精品改由少数经销商承接并推行 i 茅台销售。 Q&A 2026 年腊月到正月十五元宵节前后约 45 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the essential consumer sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili Industrial Group [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that among the eight key tracked essential consumer industries in February 2026, five maintained positive growth, while two recorded negative growth and one remained flat. The growing industries included frozen food, condiments, beer, catering, and soft drinks, while the declining industries included sub-high-end and above liquor and dairy products. The improvement in data is attributed to the increased number of Spring Festival holidays and heightened consumer enthusiasm for travel, which boosted demand for catering and supply chain products [3][35]. Demand Summary - In February 2026, five out of eight essential consumer industries showed positive growth, with frozen food, condiments, beer, catering, and soft drinks experiencing growth. Conversely, sub-high-end and above liquor and dairy products saw declines. The overall growth rate improved for seven industries compared to the previous month, primarily due to the Spring Festival holidays and increased consumer travel [3][35]. Price Summary - The report indicates that in February, the wholesale price of high-end liquor rebounded month-on-month, while sub-high-end and below liquor prices mostly fell. Discounts on liquid milk and condiments decreased, with average discount rates for liquid milk increasing by 4.7 percentage points and condiments by 1.2 percentage points compared to January. Convenience food discounts increased, while discounts for beer, soft drinks, and infant formula remained stable [4][36]. Cost Summary - In February, the spot cost indices for six categories of consumer goods generally fell, while futures cost indices mostly rose. The spot cost indices for soft drinks, instant noodles, frozen food, beer, condiments, and dairy products changed by -1.28%, -1.03%, -0.52%, -0.52%, +0.06%, and +0.27% respectively. Year-on-year changes for can, plastic, paper, and glass prices were +12.1%, -0.3%, -7.4%, and -17.7% respectively [4][37]. Capital Flow Summary - As of the end of February, the net inflow of Southbound Stock Connect funds was 80.32 billion yuan, an increase from 61.73 billion yuan in the previous month. The essential consumer sector's market value accounted for 5.86%, up by 0.04 percentage points from the previous month. The dairy industry represented 17.2% of the Southbound Stock Connect market value, while the food additive industry accounted for 14.4% [5][38]. Valuation Summary - At the end of February, the PE historical quantile for A-share food and beverage was 17% (20.5x), remaining stable from the previous month. The sub-sectors with lower quantiles included beer (1%, 20.6x) and liquor (12%, 18.3x). The median valuation for A-share food and beverage leaders was 22x, unchanged from the previous month [5][39]. Recommendations - The report suggests several favorable aspects for allocating essential consumption stocks, including increased international capital inflow into China, low institutional allocation levels, and the expectation of rising dividend rates. It recommends focusing on companies that align with fundamental and dividend yield improvement logic, such as Mengniu Dairy, Yili Industrial Group, and Tsingtao Brewery, as well as those favored by long-term institutional investors like Luzhou Laojiao and Kweichow Moutai [6][40].

研究报告 Research Report 3 Mar 2026 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费 26 年 3 月投资观点：春播正当时 It's the Prime Time for Spring Planting [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 | Outperform 迎驾 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark by over 15% [4][9]. Core Views - The report emphasizes a recovery in the food and beverage sector, highlighting a clear trend of recovery starting from the upstream to the downstream [9]. - It identifies three main lines of investment opportunities: upstream agricultural processing, food raw material suppliers, and downstream sectors such as liquor and restaurant supply chains [4][9]. - The report notes that the recovery is characterized by rigid consumption volume and price pressure, with upstream companies having stronger bargaining power compared to downstream [9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Upstream Focus - Agricultural Processing: - Sugar processing is recommended with companies like COFCO Sugar (600737, Buy) and related stocks such as Crown Agricultural (600251, Not Rated) [4]. - Juice processing is highlighted with recommendations for Andeli (605198, Not Rated) and Andeli Juice (02218, Not Rated) [4]. - Livestock is also a focus, recommending Youran Dairy (09858, Buy) and mentioning Modern Farming (01117, Not Rated) [4]. - Food Raw Material Suppliers: - Biotech extraction is recommended with Angel Yeast (600298, Buy) and Bairun (002568, Buy), with related stocks like Morning Light Bio (300138, Not Rated) [4]. - Functional sugars are noted with related stocks such as Huakang (605077, Not Rated) and Baolingbao (002286, Not Rated) [4]. Downstream Focus - Liquor: - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu (600809, Buy), Kweichow Moutai (600519, Buy), and Jiansi Yuan (603369, Buy) [4]. - Restaurant Supply Chain and Beer: - Focus on performance confirmation post valuation increase, recommending Yihai International (01579, Buy) and mentioning related stocks like Guoquan (02517, Not Rated) [4]. - Beverages and Snacks: - Emphasis on performance certainty, recommending Yanjinpuzi (002847, Buy) and Qiaqia Food (002557, Buy) [4]. - Health Products: - Noted for valuation ahead of trends, with related stocks like H&H International Holdings (01112, Not Rated) [4].