2025年中国白酒 线上交易数据分析报告 市场规模增速、交易结构、区域分布深度解析 时间：2026/03/11 整理分析：廖兵 C o n t e n t s 目录 01 核心数据速览 市场规模、平台格局、品牌排名、渠道增速全景呈现 03 各大平台交易对比 京东、天猫、抖音、即时零售平台数据对比 05 消费特征深度解析 消费人群、场景、决策因素与痛点分析 02 整体交易规模分析 04 品牌线上交易排名 全网TOP10品牌及细分品类排名分析 06 行业趋势与发展预判 四大核心趋势与2026年市场预判 K e y D a t a O v e r v i e w 核心数据速览 2025年中国白酒线上交易市场全景扫描 市场规模 930 亿元 同比增长 18.5% ，线上渗透率提升至 16.3% 平台格局 85% +市场份额 京东、天猫、抖音三大平台稳居前三 品牌排名 茅台 · 五粮液 · 泸州老窖 茅台占全网22%，稳居第一 香型分布 浓香38% + 酱香29% 两大香型合计占据67%市场份额 即时零售 200% +同比增速 成为2025年 最大增量 渠道 区域分布 华东32% 稳居第一 贵州产区销售额达461.38 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 03 月 09 日 首推餐饮链改善，白酒重回底部买点 食品饮料行业周报暨春季策略会反馈 消费品/食品饮料 本周《政府工作报告》指出，26 年将深入实施提振消费专项行动，商务部也表 示将出台商品消费扩容升级等更多增量政策，消费板块有望迎来投资机会。首 推顺周期餐饮链改善（调味品、啤酒）。大众品板块，继续首推餐饮链改善 （调味品、啤酒、乳制品等）；白酒板块，节后飞天茅台批价阶段性跌破 1600 元、主因国资平台放量及节后到货冲击市场情绪，但实际经销商库存极低（半 个月以内）、非标库存明显去化，叠加 i 茅台持续放量带动需求扩容，以及小 商成本线约 1400 元形成支撑，预计全年批价将在 1600 元上下波动，难以继续 下行。白酒产业经历多年调整后，2026 年已进入供需价格企稳年，当前板块股 价跌回春节前悲观预期阶段，具备底部配置价值。一季报预期逐步清晰后情绪 性的压制因素有望解除。 ❑ 核心公司跟踪：飞天批价短期波动，百润 26 年整体预期积极。 舍得酒业：春季旺季动销表现良好，26 年营收目标正增长。公司腊月初 一-正月初七动销双位数增长，千元价格带仍有一定压力、 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 食品饮料周报：多赛道风起，精选强α个股 ——食饮行业周报（2026 年 3 月第 1 期） 投资要点 ❑ 市场表现复盘 本周（3 月 2 日-3 月 6 日，下同），食品饮料板块涨跌幅为-2.48%，上证综 指涨跌幅为-0.93%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为-1.07%，具体来看，肉制品 +1.10%、啤酒+0.91%、乳品+0.07%、调味发酵品-0.25%、软饮料-1.47%、 其他酒类-2.16%、烘焙食品-3.13%、白酒-3.32%、预加工食品-3.76%、零食- 3.88%、保健品-4.01%。 ❑ 周观点更新 白酒：淡季高端酒批价整体稳定，关注潜在催化。本周沪深 300/食饮/白酒 板块涨跌幅-1.07%/-2.48%/-3.32%，其中山西汾酒/五粮液/洋河股份跌幅居后 （-0.3%/-1.6%/-2.8%)。本周白酒板块延续较弱表现，或主因淡季下飞天批价 因供给节奏问题导致小幅波动，需求端表现整体平稳。3 月中下旬即将迎来 糖酒会，后续将关注糖酒会情绪/房地产预期/大众高端消费等催化。 大众品：餐供/零食/功能饮料表现居前，继续看好强α标的。肉制品/ ...

《节后需求稳健格局优化，健康功能 饮品长期向好—行业周报》-2026.3.1 《春节动销趋势向好，聚焦龙头布局 景气赛道—行业周报》-2026.2.23 《包装水行业发展稳健，头部分化孕 育 结 构 性 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.11 两会政策红利释放，行业复苏确定性提升 ——行业周报 食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：两会双轮政策加持，板块迎来布局窗口 3 月 2 日-3 月 6 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 2.5%，一级子行业排名第 12，跑输沪深 300 约 1.4pct，子行业中肉制品（+1.1%）、啤酒（+0.9%）、乳品（+0.1%）表现相对领 先。本周两会开启，2026 ...

食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《节后需求稳健格局优化，健康功能 饮品长期向好—行业周报》-2026.3.1 《春节动销趋势向好，聚焦龙头布局 景气赛道—行业周报》-2026.2.23 《包装水行业发展稳健，头部分化孕 育 结 构 性 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.11 两会政策红利释放，行业复苏确定性提升 ——行业周报 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：两会双轮政策加持，板块迎来布局窗口 3 月 2 日-3 月 6 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 2.5%，一级子行业排名第 12，跑输沪深 300 约 1.4pct，子行业中肉制品（+1.1%）、啤酒（+0.9%）、乳品（+0.1%）表现相对领 先。本周两会开启，2026 年政府工作报告将扩大内需、提振消费置于年度工作 首要位置，明确实施提振消费专项行动，以居民增收、社保完善、财政金融协同、 ...

食品饮料行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 食品饮料：论原料、涨价与上游 风险提示：食品安全、产业政策调整、管理层更替、原料价格上行不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 08 日 食品饮料行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：先上游，再下游。 上游主线一：农产品加工。1）泛糖加工：推荐中粮糖业(600737，买入)、相关标的冠农 股份(600251，未评级)；2）果汁加工：相关标的安德利(605198，未评级)、安德利果汁 (02218，未评级)；3）牧业：推荐优然牧业(09858，买入)、相关标的现代牧业(01117， 未评级)； 上游主线二：食品原料供应商。生物提取：相关标的华宝国际(00336，未评级)、晨光生 物(300138，未评级)、阜丰集团(00546，未评级)；2）功能糖：相关标的华康股份 (605077，未评级)、保龄宝(002286，未评级)、百龙创园(605016，未评级)、三元生物 (301206，未评级)； 下游主线：1）白酒，推荐山西汾酒(600809，买入)、贵州茅台(600519，买入)、今世缘 (603369，买入)、舍 ...

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 07 日 相关研究 《节后茅台批价保持坚挺 继续看好白酒及 餐饮链头部标的——食品饮料行业周报 20260223-20260227》 2026/03/01 《25Q4 白酒报表出清 食品分化改善—— 食品饮料 2025 年报业绩前瞻》 2026/02/09 《春节茅台旺销验证观点 重申白酒进入战 略布局期——食品饮料行业周报 20260202-20260206》 2026/02/08 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 批价维持合理 估值吸引力提升 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20260302-20260306 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：食品安全问题，经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Baijiu industry, particularly the performance of major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Guojiao, Yanghe, and Fenjiu during the 2026 Spring Festival period compared to 2025. Key Points and Arguments Sales and Payment Progress - Payment collection for Baijiu brands is generally lagging, with Moutai's payment nearing delivery, Wuliangye at approximately 40%, and Guojiao, Yanghe, and others at only 20%-30% compared to the same period in 2025 [1][2] - Moutai's sales growth is in the single digits, while Wuliangye saw a 3%-4% increase in January-February. Guojiao's sales dropped nearly 25%, and Yanghe and others saw declines of about 15% [1][5] Inventory Levels - Inventory levels are high across many brands, with Guojiao, Yanghe, and others having 2-3 months of channel inventory. Moutai has about 10 days, and Wuliangye around 25 days, indicating ongoing pressure to reduce inventory [1][3][4] Pricing Trends - Pricing for Moutai is expected to range between 1,450-1,650 RMB, with Wuliangye maintaining above 780 RMB. Guojiao is around 850 RMB, while Water Well's 8th product has dropped to 267 RMB due to inventory pressure [1][7][8] Regional Performance - In the Anhui market, Gujing and Yingjia have payment collections around 45%, while Kuozi has less than 30%. Gujing's sales have declined by 10%-15%, and Kuozi's by nearly 40%, indicating intensified regional competition and shrinking profit margins [1] Contract Goals for 2026 - Wuliangye has signed contracts at 1.1 times last year's actual volume, Yanghe is flat, and Kuozi has reduced its target by over 20%. Moutai's premium products are now handled by select distributors, with a focus on the "i Moutai" sales channel [1][25][30] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Moutai's non-standard products have seen a decline in sales due to inventory changes, with current non-standard inventory covering about one month. The sales structure is lighter, indicating a healthier inventory state [6] - The premium segment for Moutai has improved, but channel motivation is still affected by historical losses. The supply method for premium products has changed, focusing on select distributors rather than broad distribution [7] Profitability and Margin Analysis - Guojiao's current pricing is around 840-850 RMB, with a significant drop in sales attributed to decreased liquidity in the wholesale market during the Spring Festival [11][12] - The profitability of Guojiao's distributors is not as favorable compared to Wuliangye, with Guojiao's distributors likely not making significant profits [13] Product-Specific Insights - The performance of specific products like Fenjiu's Qinghua series has seen a decline of about 10%, while other products have shown mixed results [5][15] - The pricing for Water Well's 8th product has significantly decreased, reflecting market pressures and inventory issues [18][19] Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the Baijiu market indicates cautious optimism, with brands adjusting their strategies to cope with inventory pressures and changing consumer preferences. The focus will be on maintaining profitability while navigating competitive challenges [1][25][30] Additional Important Insights - The call highlighted the importance of regional dynamics, with varying performance across different markets, and the need for brands to adapt their strategies accordingly [10][28] - The impact of promotional activities and consumer incentives remains a critical factor in driving sales, particularly in a competitive landscape [9][36] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Baijiu industry.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the essential consumer sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili Industrial Group [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that among the eight key tracked essential consumer industries in February 2026, five maintained positive growth, while two recorded negative growth and one remained flat. The growing industries included frozen food, condiments, beer, catering, and soft drinks, while the declining industries included sub-high-end and above liquor and dairy products. The improvement in data is attributed to the increased number of Spring Festival holidays and heightened consumer enthusiasm for travel, which boosted demand for catering and supply chain products [3][35]. Demand Summary - In February 2026, five out of eight essential consumer industries showed positive growth, with frozen food, condiments, beer, catering, and soft drinks experiencing growth. Conversely, sub-high-end and above liquor and dairy products saw declines. The overall growth rate improved for seven industries compared to the previous month, primarily due to the Spring Festival holidays and increased consumer travel [3][35]. Price Summary - The report indicates that in February, the wholesale price of high-end liquor rebounded month-on-month, while sub-high-end and below liquor prices mostly fell. Discounts on liquid milk and condiments decreased, with average discount rates for liquid milk increasing by 4.7 percentage points and condiments by 1.2 percentage points compared to January. Convenience food discounts increased, while discounts for beer, soft drinks, and infant formula remained stable [4][36]. Cost Summary - In February, the spot cost indices for six categories of consumer goods generally fell, while futures cost indices mostly rose. The spot cost indices for soft drinks, instant noodles, frozen food, beer, condiments, and dairy products changed by -1.28%, -1.03%, -0.52%, -0.52%, +0.06%, and +0.27% respectively. Year-on-year changes for can, plastic, paper, and glass prices were +12.1%, -0.3%, -7.4%, and -17.7% respectively [4][37]. Capital Flow Summary - As of the end of February, the net inflow of Southbound Stock Connect funds was 80.32 billion yuan, an increase from 61.73 billion yuan in the previous month. The essential consumer sector's market value accounted for 5.86%, up by 0.04 percentage points from the previous month. The dairy industry represented 17.2% of the Southbound Stock Connect market value, while the food additive industry accounted for 14.4% [5][38]. Valuation Summary - At the end of February, the PE historical quantile for A-share food and beverage was 17% (20.5x), remaining stable from the previous month. The sub-sectors with lower quantiles included beer (1%, 20.6x) and liquor (12%, 18.3x). The median valuation for A-share food and beverage leaders was 22x, unchanged from the previous month [5][39]. Recommendations - The report suggests several favorable aspects for allocating essential consumption stocks, including increased international capital inflow into China, low institutional allocation levels, and the expectation of rising dividend rates. It recommends focusing on companies that align with fundamental and dividend yield improvement logic, such as Mengniu Dairy, Yili Industrial Group, and Tsingtao Brewery, as well as those favored by long-term institutional investors like Luzhou Laojiao and Kweichow Moutai [6][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the essential consumer sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili Industrial Group [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that among the eight key tracked essential consumer industries in February 2026, five maintained positive growth, two recorded negative growth, and one remained flat. The growing industries included frozen food, condiments, beer, catering, and soft drinks, while the declining industries included sub-high-end and above liquor and dairy products. The improvement in data is attributed to the increased number of Spring Festival holidays and heightened consumer enthusiasm for travel, which boosted demand for catering and supply chain products [3][35]. Demand Summary - In February 2026, five out of eight essential consumer industries showed positive growth, with frozen food, condiments, beer, catering, and soft drinks experiencing growth. In contrast, sub-high-end and above liquor and dairy products faced declines. The overall growth rate improved for seven industries compared to the previous month, primarily due to the Spring Festival holidays and increased consumer travel [3][35]. Price Summary - The wholesale price of high-end liquor rebounded month-on-month, while sub-high-end and below liquor prices mostly fell. Discounts on liquid milk and condiments decreased, with average discount rates for liquid milk increasing by 4.7 percentage points and condiments by 1.2 percentage points compared to January. Convenience food discounts increased, while discounts for beer, soft drinks, and infant formula remained stable [4][36]. Cost Summary - In February, the spot cost indices for six categories of consumer goods generally fell, while futures cost indices mostly rose. The spot cost indices for soft drinks, instant noodles, frozen food, beer, condiments, and dairy products changed by -1.28%, -1.03%, -0.52%, -0.52%, +0.06%, and +0.27% respectively. Year-on-year changes for can, plastic, paper, and glass prices were +12.1%, -0.3%, -7.4%, and -17.7% respectively [4][37]. Capital Flow Summary - As of the end of February, the net inflow of Southbound Stock Connect funds was 80.32 billion yuan, an increase from 61.73 billion yuan in the previous month. The essential consumer sector's market value accounted for 5.86%, up by 0.04 percentage points from the previous month. The dairy industry represented 17.2% of the Southbound Stock Connect market value, while the food additive industry accounted for 14.4% [5][38]. Valuation Summary - At the end of February, the PE historical quantile for A-share food and beverage was 17% (20.5x), remaining stable from the previous month. The sub-sectors with lower quantiles included beer (1%, 20.6x) and liquor (12%, 18.3x). The median valuation for A-share food and beverage leaders was 22x, unchanged from the previous month [5][39]. Suggestions - The report suggests several favorable aspects for allocating essential consumption, including increased international capital inflow into China, low institutional allocation levels, and the gradual recovery of industries like dairy and liquor. Recommendations for March include stocks that align with fundamental and dividend yield improvement logic, such as Mengniu Dairy, Yili Industrial Group, and Tsingtao Brewery, as well as those favored by long-term institutional investors like Luzhou Laojiao and Kweichow Moutai [6][40].