31 March 2026 | 1:46AM HKT Equity Research China Consumer Staples: Spirits/F&B expert calls: sequential on-trade recovery with Moutai leading recovery; remain cautious on other spirits On Mar 30, we hosted an expert call with a large spirits and F&B distributor located in Central China. Key highlights: 1) Spirits recent updates and 2026 outlook: the expert saw c.15%+ decline post LNY and sequential narrowing in decline magnitude in Mar without a significant drop in mass consumption/banquets post LNY peak se ...

研究报告 ResearchReport 1 Apr 2026 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费品 3 月需求报告：春节红利消退，餐饮链修复放缓 As the Spring Festival Boost Fades, the Recovery of the Restaurant Industry is Slowing Down [Table_yemei1] Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | | | | | | 贵州茅台 | | | Outperform 古井贡酒 Outperform | | | | | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | | | 五粮液 | | | | Outperform 安琪酵母 Outperform | | | | | 五粮液 | | | | | Outperform 今世缘 ...

2026 年春糖反馈报告 春糖观感：产业参展热度整体下降，传统展会降温，新零售、新酒饮明显升温。 本届春糖参会酒企及参展人数进一步下降，头部酒企茅五缺席酒店展，中小品 牌成酒店展主力。同时企业普遍缩减在糖酒会期间的费用投入，转向更精准的 招商与消费者互动，糖酒会传统的招商功能持续减弱，行业营销模式向实效转 型。渠道商普遍持谨慎观望态度，代理新品意愿偏低。然而与传统展会/论坛降 温不同，今年新零售、新酒饮热度明显提升，美团歪马论坛场内外爆满，露酒 热度空前，汾酒竹叶青、古井贡神力酒等设单展，春糖首设养生酒专区。我们 认为传统业态的冷静与新业态的火热，背后是消费代际切换、需求转变的映射， 80/90/00 后成为酒水消费主力后，更关注产品力、悦己属性及购买便捷性。 春糖思考：2026 不仅是白酒周期筑底，更是新时代的开启 行业研究 白酒 2026 年 03 月 30 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 推荐（维持） 叩响酒业新时代 相对指数表现 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs ...

春糖反馈暨食品饮料最新观点：白酒筑底，大众品关注成 本传导 20260327 摘要 白酒行业处于筑底期，2026 年定调为价格企稳年，重心转向 C 端运营 与复购。 茅台批价 1,600 元筑底，2026 年春节动销双位数增长；五粮液计划二 季度减量挺价至 800 元以上。 白酒板块 4 月底财报压力释放后预期好转，首推茅台，关注五粮液价格 信号及汾酒弹性。 乳制品需求触底回升，奶价温和上涨削弱小企业低价竞争优势，利好伊 利、蒙牛份额回归。 餐饮供应链受益于需求改善，海天、颐海 1-2 月动销双位数增长，行业 具备 Beta 机会。 啤酒板块侧重 Alpha 属性，燕京啤酒受 U8 驱动实现增长；饮料类农夫 山泉维持良性增长。 千禾味业受益于 2025 年低基数及渠道扩张，2026 年上半年业绩反弹 确定性较高。 Q&A 基于近期春季糖酒会的观察，当前白酒行业的整体发展阶段、市场特征以及投 资策略是怎样的？ 根据春季糖酒会的观察，行业参与度明显低于往年，头部企业如茅台、泸州老 窖取消了酒店展，汾酒、五粮液也取消了经销商大会。行业重心已从流量争夺 转向 C 端运营、用户运营和复购培育，头部企业更专注于主会场的精 ...

4补充一组i茅台数据，26Q1接近400万用户在i茅台上买到产品，26年1月为145万，我们对茅台一季度经营充满信 心！ 1行业压力最大的时候已经过去，这一点进一步得到确认，26年春节面临需求的不确定、禁酒令后续影响、高基 数、茅台批价下跌，最终春节的情况好于悲观预期； 2经过春节的压力测试后，头部企业心中有底，战略战术开始明确； 3价格趋势Q2开始企稳向上，价格是景气度的风向标，茅台批价节后稳定在1500元以上（验证我们年初判断）， 五粮液预计后期也将恢复价格； 周观点：糖酒会总结 1行业压力最大的时候已经过去，这一点进一步得到确认，26年春节面临需求的不确定、禁酒令后续影响、高基 数、茅台批价下跌，最终春节的情况好于悲观预期； 2经过春节的压力测试后，头部企业心中有底，战略战术开始明确； 3价格趋势Q2开始企稳向上，价格是景气度的风向标，茅台批价节后稳定在1500元以上（验证我们年初判断）， 五粮液预计后期也将恢复价格； 4补充一组i茅台数据，26Q 周观点：糖酒会总结 行业最差时点已过，开始弱复苏，虽然目前复苏的斜率尚不确定，但对行业已没有必要继续悲观，更多是看优秀 的企业如何兑现阿尔法能力。 推荐：贵 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor industry, particularly recommending leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye for short-term and mid-term investment opportunities [1][2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with a focus on rationality among enterprises and continuous clearing of financial statements. Guizhou Moutai is leading reforms, while Wuliangye is maintaining price stability through supply management [1][2]. - The report highlights a dual focus on recovery and growth in the consumer goods sector, emphasizing health-oriented product upgrades and channel transformations to explore incremental growth [1][6]. - The spring liquor fair in 2026 showed a subdued performance, with fewer participating companies and a trend towards digitalization and new consumer engagement strategies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The spring liquor fair indicated a continued structural differentiation in demand, with a notable increase in brand concentration and resilience in high-end pricing [2]. - Guizhou Moutai's price stabilized around 1600 yuan post-Spring Festival, while new product launches and digital retail channels are gaining traction [2][3]. - Wuliangye's core product saw double-digit growth in sales, reflecting strong brand resilience and effective marketing strategies [3]. Consumer Goods - The focus on health and functional upgrades in products is evident, with new product launches in low-sugar and health-oriented categories [6][8]. - Companies like汤臣倍健 are targeting double-digit revenue growth by enhancing online channels and expanding product categories [6]. - The report notes that the snack and beverage sectors are seeing significant growth opportunities, driven by health trends and innovative marketing strategies [6][8].

投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《消费前景乐观展望，多维度布局龙 头标的—行业周报》-2026.3.22 《春节提振消费表现，1-2 月社零增速 环比提升—行业点评报告》-2026.3.18 《白酒底部逐步夯实，重视龙头配置 价值—行业点评报告》-2026.3.17 糖酒会反馈：白酒结构性触底，大众品双轮变革 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 29 日 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：白酒格局重塑，大众品产品渠道双向升级 3 月 23 日-3 月 27 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.0%，一级子行业排名第 16，跑赢 沪深 300 约 0.4pct，子行业中预加工食品（+4.3%）、调味发酵品（+3.2%）、零 食（+1.2%）表现相对领先。我们观察 2026 年春季糖酒 ...

白酒：本周春糖召开，总体来看：1）行业层面，3 月动销由旺转淡，淡季动销环比回落速率较往年没有明显差异， 渠道层面对 26 年全年动销预期较此前保持一致、即节奏前低后高，26 年全年拉平动销或同比持平/微降。价盘层面， 渠道预期仍预计淡季或有行业价盘再回落风险；考虑到流通市场持续去库存，即使回落、幅度亦有限。2）酒企层面， 落实去库存、控量稳价，以及布局低度化等行业新趋势成为短期主要打法。考虑春节动销同比仍有缺口，且酒企仍处 "去库存"阶段，我们预计 25Q4+26Q1 上市酒企表观整体延续 25Q3 相似的出清斜率，26H2 低基数下或步入表观企稳 阶段。 我们看好当前白酒板块配置价值、低预期下胜率可观，尤其是在市场风偏受外部风险事件影响有所波动的窗口期。预 期先行、节后即使淡季亦具备自上而下催化，从复盘来看 PPI、M1 等对白酒需求侧具备前瞻信号意义。伴随"反内卷" 政策持续落地、企业 ROE 有望改善，并传导至企业端招待等支出提升、居民收入预期改善，行业拐点将逐步临近。 配置方向建议：1）品牌力突出、护城河深厚的高端酒（贵州茅台、五粮液），渠道势能仍处于上行期的山西汾酒，受 益于大众需求强韧性&乡镇消 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the snack chain industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on product innovation and channel efficiency, particularly in the context of the 2026 Spring Sugar Conference [8][16][39] - It emphasizes the trend of integrating health-conscious elements into both Chinese and Western snacks, with popular ingredients and flavors being identified at recent trade shows [18][22][27] - The report suggests that the convenience store model is evolving, with new store formats like "snack + fresh" stores being introduced to expand product boundaries and enhance customer experience [31][39] Weekly Focus: 2026 Spring Sugar Conference Feedback - Snack Chains - The report discusses the gradual recovery of the liquor industry and the strong performance of the seasoning industry post-holiday, indicating a clear "Matthew Effect" [8][16] - It notes that Chinese snacks are leaning towards "popular element combinations," while Western snacks emphasize "clean ingredient lists" and health benefits [18][27] - Key products observed at the conference included konjac, quail eggs, and chicken feet, with innovative combinations like "konjac + quail eggs" gaining traction [18][22] - The report identifies leading brands participating in the conference, such as Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Foods, showcasing their new product lines and marketing strategies [22][27] Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector experienced a -1.0% change in stock performance from March 23 to March 27, ranking 18th out of 31 sectors, slightly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.4 percentage points [40][44] - Within the sector, processed foods and seasoning products showed positive performance, with increases of +4.3% and +3.2% respectively, while soft drinks and liquor lagged behind with declines of -1.5% and -1.8% [40][44] - The report indicates that 57 stocks in the food and beverage sector rose, while 61 fell, reflecting a balanced market sentiment [40][44] Valuation Situation - As of March 27, the food and beverage sector's PE-TTM was reported at 20.5X, with a valuation percentile of 1.0% over the past five years, while the liquor sector's PE-TTM was 17.8X with a 0.7% percentile [56][59] - The relative valuations of the food and beverage and liquor sectors compared to the CSI 300 index were 1.47 and 1.28 times, respectively [56][59] Liquor Price Tracking - The report provides insights into liquor pricing, noting that the price of a bottle of Feitian Moutai was 1550 CNY, a decrease of 10 CNY from the previous week, while the price for a case increased by 10 CNY to 1645 CNY [56][60]

投资建议 白酒：本周春糖召开，总体来看：1）行业层面，3 月动销由旺转淡，淡季动销环比回落速率较往年没有明显差异， 渠道层面对 26 年全年动销预期较此前保持一致、即节奏前低后高，26 年全年拉平动销或同比持平/微降。价盘层面， 渠道预期仍预计淡季或有行业价盘再回落风险；考虑到流通市场持续去库存，即使回落、幅度亦有限。2）酒企层面， 落实去库存、控量稳价，以及布局低度化等行业新趋势成为短期主要打法。考虑春节动销同比仍有缺口，且酒企仍处 "去库存"阶段，我们预计 25Q4+26Q1 上市酒企表观整体延续 25Q3 相似的出清斜率，26H2 低基数下或步入表观企稳 阶段。 我们看好当前白酒板块配置价值、低预期下胜率可观，尤其是在市场风偏受外部风险事件影响有所波动的窗口期。预 期先行、节后即使淡季亦具备自上而下催化，从复盘来看 PPI、M1 等对白酒需求侧具备前瞻信号意义。伴随"反内卷" 政策持续落地、企业 ROE 有望改善，并传导至企业端招待等支出提升、居民收入预期改善，行业拐点将逐步临近。 配置方向建议：1）品牌力突出、护城河深厚的高端酒（贵州茅台、五粮液），渠道势能仍处于上行期的山西汾酒，受 益于大众需求强韧 ...