70城楼市暴击！二手房仅5城涨，专家还在吹回暖？

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market is experiencing a deceptive appearance of recovery, while underlying conditions remain weak, leading to a situation described as "Schrodinger's recovery" [2] Group 1: New Housing Market Data - In April, 22 cities reported a month-on-month increase in new housing prices, but this is misleading as the overall market remains weak [2] - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai showed slight increases of 0.1% and 0.5% respectively, while cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen experienced declines [9] - The new housing market is characterized by a few high-end projects inflating the overall statistics, which do not reflect the reality faced by average consumers [10][13] Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand homes across 70 cities fell by 0.41%, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shenzhen also seeing declines of 0.6% and 0.3% respectively [12] - Guangzhou experienced a significant year-on-year drop of 7.4%, indicating a substantial loss in property value for homeowners [12] - The second-hand market is viewed as a more accurate reflection of the real estate situation, contrasting sharply with the new housing data [11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The notion of a "divided market" is prevalent, where high-end properties in major cities are performing well, but this does not translate to overall market health [13] - The previous reliance on population growth and urbanization to drive real estate prices is over, with a new focus on "housing for living, not speculation" [15] - Investors are advised to be cautious, especially in lower-tier cities, as the market is unlikely to return to previous highs, and properties in less desirable locations will struggle to sell [15][16]