深度丨银行谋变低利率“逆风局”

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is transitioning into a low-interest-rate environment, which poses significant challenges for profitability and requires a strategic shift in business models [1][3][4]. Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The recent decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and the continuous drop in the 10-year government bond yield indicate a shift towards a low-interest-rate era in China [1][4]. - Historical experiences from Japan, the US, and Europe suggest that once a low-interest-rate environment is established, it may take over a decade to exit [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The net interest margin for commercial banks in China has decreased from 2.08% in 2021 to an expected 1.43% by Q1 2025, marking a cumulative decline of 65 basis points [1][4]. - The low-interest-rate environment is expected to lead to a decline in interest income for listed banks, with a projected 2.2% decrease in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Some banks are adopting strategies similar to those of Japanese banks, such as international expansion and diversification into non-interest income [2][8]. - Major banks like ICBC are implementing a "second growth curve" strategy to adapt to the new environment, focusing on comprehensive financial services [13][16]. Group 4: Lessons from International Experience - Japanese banks have successfully navigated low-interest rates by expanding overseas, adjusting loan structures, and increasing non-interest income [8][10]. - The shift towards a diversified income model is crucial for banks to mitigate the impact of declining interest margins [10][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency, optimizing asset-liability structures, and leveraging technology to support growth [14][18]. - The emphasis on wealth management and private banking is increasing as banks seek to meet rising demand for asset preservation in a low-interest-rate context [13][14].